Corn futures are sitting near their highs for the day immediately after the USDA data release with March up by 15 3/4 cents. Prices started the day slightly higher, but were down by 3 cents into the report. USDA maintained their average corn cash price at $6.70.
NASS production estimates, now the final estimate barring Sep Grain Stocks revisions, were for a 1.6m acre reduction 79.2m harvested acres – well below the range of estimates!. Yield was raised by a full bushel to 173.3 bpa. The trade was looking for a 2/10th of an increase on average. Overall corn output was reported as 13.730 bbu, compared to 13.936 bbu expected and 13.930 in the Dec report.
The domestic balance sheet adjusted exports 150 mbu lower to 1.925 billion – a bit more than expected. The other use categories netted a 35 mbu decrease, for an ending stocks cut of 15 mbu to 1.242 billion. The average trade guess going in was for a 57 mbu uptick to 1.314 bbu.
Globally, USDA sees corn output 1.156 BMT for 2023/23. That was 1.14 MMT lower from their Dec estimate with a 3 MMT cut to Argentina, a 1 MMT cut to Brazil and an offsetting increase to China. This morning CONAB estimated Brazilian output at 125.06 MMT after a 765k MT drop in 1st crop’s yield (down 2.3 bpa to 98.1). Global ending stocks were shown as 296.42 MMT for the 22/23 season. That compares to 298.4 MMT last month and 306 MMT last year, and was in-line with estimates - though the average trade guess was for a 700k MT trim.
The Quarterly NASS Grain Stocks count showed 10.809 bbu of corn on hand on December 1st, with 6.748 bbu in farmer hands. The average trade guess was to see 11.173 bbu. Implied Q1 demand was 4.298 bbu, compared to 4.667 bbu last season.
Weekly FAS Export Sales data showed corn bookings were 255,687 MT for the week that ended 1/05. That was below the pre-report estimates and was 20% lower wk/wk. Accumulated export commitments were 21.996 MMT (866 mbu) as of 1/05.
Mar 23 Corn is at $6.71, up 15 cents,
Nearby Cash is at $6.76 5/8, up 14 3/4 cents,
May 23 Corn is at $6.69 1/4, up 14 cents,
Jul 23 Corn is at $6.61 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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