SP 500 Futures & Gold Analysis

SP 500 Futures

(ESM26) 

From the last update,

The rally from 23.6% at 6520.00 could not get a close above 38.2% at 6700.00, or the 200 day average keeping this leg down negative and it went on to a new low as this is the target when it fails to take out a 38.2% (6700.00) retracement, per the ONE44 38.2% rule. With the new low the key level for the week will be 6520.00, this is both the long term 23.6% retracement to the 4/7/25 low and is now is 23.6% back to the ATH making it an important level to get back above.

Use 6520.00 as the swing point for the week.

 Above it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the ATH at 6620.00, a failure to get above this level keeps the short term trend negative and a new low can quickly follow. The longer term target is 61.8% of the same move at 6783.00. The long term target area is 78.6% at 6900.00 and the 6906.00 major Gann square.

The huge rally the next day closed above the long term 23.6% level at 6520.00 and then went right to the short term target of 38.2% back to the ATH at 6620.00, it spent five trading days in this area before accelerating again blowing through 61.8% at 6783.00 and then fell just short of the long term target area between 6900.00 (78.6%) and the 6906.00 major Gann square. It did get close enough to 78.6% to bring in the ONE44 78.6% rule target.ONE44 78.6% rule, short version.

Any market that hits 78.6% should go 78.6% back the other way. This is also where a lot of Bull markets end and start.

On a setback from this area the longer term target is 78.6% of where it just came from on the rally from 6353.25 low on 3/31/26 at 6470.00. The long term target, with a failure to make a new high in this area can be the end of the Bull market for now. It can still trade well above 78.6% at 6900.00 and the 6906.00 major Gann square, but we would not want to see more than one close above it. The key level for the week will be 6900.00 (78.6%).

Use 6900.00 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, a failure to turn lower from this area will give us only major Gann squares to look for resistance and use as the swing point when closed above, the next two are 7054.00 and the most important is a cluster of major Gann squares at 7229.00.

Below it, the longer term target on a setback from 78.6% (6900.00) is 78.6% of where it just came from at 6470.00. The short term target is 38.2% back to the 3/31/26 low at 6692.00, this is also the 200 day average. The long term target is the longer term swing point of 6220.00, this is 38.2% back to the 4/7/25 low and 23.6% back to the 2022 low, a failure to hold this area will give us a long term target and swing point at 5706.00, this a major Gann square, 61.8% back to the 4/7/25 low and 38.2% back to the 2022 low. Before that there are major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below, these levels are on the chart. Any setback that can't get below the previous major Gann square at 6752.00 keeps the trend extremely positive and a new high can quickly follow.

GOLD

(GCM26) 

From the last update,

The June contract also hit 38.2% back to the 2022 low on 3/23/26 at 4135.00, this was also a major Gann square. The key level for the week will be 38.2% back to the high on 1/29/26 at 4722.00, if this is all it can rally coming from a much longer term 38.2% level it would be a negative sign and a new low can quickly follow.

Use 4722.00 as the swing point for the week.

The one day setback after closing above the 4722.00 (38.2%) swing point held above 38.2% back to the 3/23/26 low at 4566.00 On 4/2/26 keeping the short term trend positive along with the long term trend (4135.00, 38.2%). It now has three closes above 4722.00 and this will again be the key level for the week.

Use 4722.00 as the swing point for the week again.

Above it, the short term target area is the 5062.60 major Gann square and 61.8% back to the contract high at 5082.00. The longer term target is 78.6% of the same move at 5345.00. The long term target after holding 38.2% back to the 2022 low is a new high per the ONE44 38.2% rule.

Below it, the longer term target is 78.6% back to the 3/23/26 low at 4290.00. The long term target on a failure to hold 38.2% back to the 2022 low at 4135.00 will be 61.8% of the same move at 3210.00. Before then there are major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below, they are on the chart. Any setback that holds 38.2% back to the 3/23/26 low keeps the short term trend extremely positive and a new high can follow (ONE44 38.2% rule).

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