Beans closed with 11 1/2 to 14 1/4 cent gains in the nearbys, however the gains dwindled to a penny loss by the Nov 2023 contract. Meal futures were $5.40 to $7.40 stronger on the day. Front month BO prices were 32 to 35 points stronger on the day. The Jan BO contract is still 14.63 cents/lb under the monthly high.
USDA announced a sale of 718,000 MT of soybeans to “unknown destinations” this morning under the daily reporting system. Another 118,000 MT was going to China.
USDA reported weekly bean bookings were 1.716 MMT for the week that ended 12/1. That was more than double last week, and was 31% higher than the same week last year. The week’s shipments were 2.25 MMT for a season total of 21.17 MMT. That still trails last year by 16%, compared to the USDA’s WASDE forecast at a 5.2% lag. New crop bookings were 30k MT compared to the 0-250k MT expected going in. The total forward sale sits at 40k MT
For the products, traders expected 150k to 350k MT of soymeal sales (actual was 226,200) and less than 10k MT of BO bookings (actual was only 500 metric tonnes). Accumulated shipments sit at 1.755 MMT for meal and 11.8k MT for soy oil.
Chinese customs reports that Chinese soybean imports January -November were 80.6 MMT, down 8% year over year.
Brazil’s CONAB trimmed their soybean production estimate slightly (~60k MT) from November to 153.48 MMT. The average of estimates for the Brazilian soy crop in the Dec WASDE is 152.5 MMT, which would be 500k MT above USDA’s November forecast if realized. The full range is from UNCH to 155.1 MMT. Argentina is estimated to be reduced 700k MT to 48.8 MMT.
Pre-report estimates for the December WASDE have soybean carryout at 233.3 mbu on average. That would be a 13.3 mbu increase from the November estimate. Published ideas run from 200 mbu to 296 mbu. The expected world ending stocks average at 102.3 MMT, up 100,000 from last month.
Jan 23 Soybeans closed at $14.86 1/4, up 14 1/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $14.62 1/4, up 14 cents,
Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $14.90 1/4, up 13 cents,
May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.95 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
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