Soybeans Bounce Back on Friday

The weekly bean market saw strength early before Thursday took it all back. On the last trade day of the week beans gained 8 1/4 to 10 1/2 cents, leaving Jan at a net 2 1/4 cent gain from Friday to Friday. Meal stayed up on the week, with Friday’s front month gains of $2.50 to $3.60/ton keeping the Jan contract at a net $17.80 gain for the week. Soybean oil was pressured midweek from EPA proposed biofuel production mandates. Friday’s 1.1% to 3.2% losses kept BO down a net 650 points (9%) for the week. USDA’s weekly Ethanol report showed the MN average B100 Biodiesel price was $6.74/gal for the week, UNCH with the week prior. 

The Commitment of Traders report showed managed money was 102,104 contracts net long in soybeans as of the 11/29 settle. That was a 20k contract increase through the week, mostly fueled by net new buying. Commercial soybean traders added 12k short hedges, with 4k fewer longs, for a net short of 144,388 contracts. Managed money firms were also net buyers in meal and soy oil through the week that ended 11/29. 

StatsCan reported 2022/23 canola output at 18.174 MMT. That was down nearly 1 MMT from their prior report in Sep, where the low end of estimates was expecting a 500k MT cut. Last year’s crop was 13.757 MMT but was hindered by the drought, and 2020/21 was 19.48 MMT. Their soybean production is now forecasted at 6.543 MMT, mostly UNCH from Sept. 

China is set to auction 500k MT of imported soybeans on 12/9. StoneX estimates the Brazilian soy crop 737k MT higher than previous estimates at 155 MMT. Private firm Datagro updated their estimate to 153.3 MMT for the 22/23 Brazilian bean crop. 

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.38 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $14.16 5/8, up 8 1/2 cents,

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.46 1/2, up 9 3/4 cents,

May 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.54, up 9 1/2 cents,