Crude Prices Climb as OPEC+ Considers Deeper Production Cuts

Jan WTI crude oil (CLF23) this morning is up +1.95 (+2.52%), and Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF23) is up +3.37 (+1.48%).  Jan Nymex natural gas (NGF23) is up +0.170 (+2.36%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are moderately higher.  A weaker dollar today is supportive of energy prices.  Crude also has carry-over support from Monday when OPEC+ delegates said the group may consider deeper crude production supply cuts when they meet this Sunday if it is required "to balance supply and demand."

Jan nat-gas this morning is moderately higher on the outlook for colder U.S. weather to boost heating demand for nat-gas.  The Commodity Weather Group said today that below-normal temperatures are expected in the Midwest Dec 4-8 and will extend into the Northeast from Dec 9-13.

Crude prices today also garnered support after China said it would bolster vaccinations among its senior citizens, a move that should lead to an easing of pandemic restrictions and a faster reopening of China's economy.  

Chinese energy demand concerns continue to undercut crude prices.  China reported a record 38,808 new Covid infections on Sunday, which may lead to more pandemic lockdowns that curb economic growth and energy demand.  Analytics firm Kpler said Chinese oil demand could average 15.11 million bpd in Q4, down -4.5% from 15.82 million bpd a year ago.

Another bearish factor for crude was the action by the Biden administration on Saturday to grant Chevron a license to resume oil production in Venezuela after U.S. sanctions halted all drilling activities there three years ago.  The sanctions were eased after Norwegian mediators announced the restart of talks between Venezuelan President Maduro and opposition political parties, a key condition for easing sanctions.

Oil prices are seeing support ahead of a partial ban on Russian oil beginning December 5.  Europe is planning to ban the import of Russian seaborne oil beginning December 5.  Meanwhile, the markets are waiting for details on the G-7's plan for a Russian oil price cap.  The price cap seeks to curb Russian oil sales by banning G-7 companies from providing shipping and related services unless that oil is sold below the cap price.  The price-cap embargo should support global oil prices since it is likely to crimp Russian oil exports and reduce the supply of world oil.

In a bearish factor, Vortexa reported Monday that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +2.2% w/w to 103.13 million bbls in the week ended November 25.

OPEC+ on October 5 agreed to cut its collective output by -2.0 million bpd for November and December, a bigger cut than expectations of -1.0 million bpd.  Saudi Arabia's energy minister said the real-world impact of the crude production cuts would likely be around 1 million to 1.1 million bpd from November since some members are already pumping well below their quotas.  OPEC crude production in October rose +30,000 bpd to a 2-1/2 year high of 29.98 million bpd.  

Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of November 18 were -5.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -3.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -13.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended November 18 was unchanged w/w at 12.1 million bpd, which is only -1.0 million bpd (-7.6%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Wednesday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended November 25 rose by +4 rigs to a 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs.  U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.

• Crude Prices Fall on Demand Concerns as Pandemic Worsens in China
• Nat-Gas Retreats as U.S. Weather Forecasts Shift Warmer
• Crude Slightly Lower on Surging Chinese Covid Cases
• Nat-Gas Surges on Forecasts for Colder U.S. Temps