Cattle Markets Surge Taking Cash Prices Higher

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Cattle futures had a tremendous week after last Friday’s breakout rally. Prices continued their surge higher even as outside markets continued to be volatile. With a short week of trading and the Easter Holiday approaching, futures traders took the bull by the horns and rode into the sunset leading to a surge in cash prices that aided producers in their battle with the packing industry. With cut-out prices sagging and Crude Oil prices working higher, you would expect futures to give way to the downside. While Friday morning saw cattle prices give way, a stabilizing Equity market inspired a run higher in the cattle markets, leading to stronger packer bids, leading to an even more impressive move higher in the futures markets that didn’t stop until the market closed. This fortified producers’ positions and the packer was forced to pay up for cattle, even as cutouts languished. Packers were forced to pay up and prices surged reaching as high as 246.50 on the mandatory report for Thursday’s trade. The higher prices paid by the packer forced them to pull back on slaughter with slaughter coming in at a lower number than analysts’ expectations, but it was still higher than the week before at 533,000 head estimated. This plus the inability for the packer to get cutout prices moving higher keeps the packer behind the 8-ball as we move towards grilling season. Cutouts were down for the third day in a row on Friday, demonstrating the packer plight. But the grilling season is the hope for the packer as cutouts are expected to rise as the retail industry gets prepared for the upcoming holidays, with the highlight on the 250^th birthday of our country on the Fourth of July. The industry should be getting back to normal as the JBS workers’ strike is set to end on Monday without a new agreement in place. This will get JBS back in the market to get cattle slaughtered at the plant, possibly creating more hurdles for the packing industry as cash prices are nearing all-time highs again. This will be an interesting spring and summer for sure… We’ll see!... May Feeder Cattle gap opened lower and traded down to the low at 363.425, testing the 363.00 support level. It then reversed course and rallied the rest of the session to the high at 371.25. It settled near the high at 30.625. The rally took price past resistance at 369.375 on the continuous chart. The rally took price into the gap on the May chart created from the low at 373.225 on October 16, 2025, to the high on October 17 at 368.05. If Feeder Cattle can hold settlement, it could test the gap high. Resistance then comes in at 375.075 and then 376.75. A failure from settlement has support at 369.375 and then 365.675. June Live Cattle gap opened lower and traded to the low at 241.95. This was a test of support at 242.075. Price reversed and rallied the rest of the session to the high at 246.575. This is a new contract high for the June contract and puts the June contract on course to challenge the all-time high for the lead contract on the continuous chart at 248.30. The rally stalled just below resistance at 246.975 and settled near the high at 246.325. If Live Cattle can hold settlement, it could test resistance at 246.975. Resistance then comes in at the all-time high for the lead contract. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 245.125. Support then comes in at 242.075.

The Feeder Cattle Index released Thursday ticked lower and is at 366.81 as of 04/01/2026 settlement. 

Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts decreased 1.80 to 387.78 and select decreased 1.51 to 386.19. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 1.59 and the load count was 102.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 96,000, which is above last week’s 92,000 and below last year’s 109,114. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 8,000, which is below last week’s 19,000 and last year’s 8,288. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 533,000, which is above last week’s 523,000 and below last year’s 586,034.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on moderate demand in the Southern Plains. The last established market test in the Texas Panhandle was Thursday with live purchases at 245.00. The last established market test in Kansas was Thursday with live purchases at 245.00. Negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt. The last established market test in Nebraska was Thursday with live purchases at mostly 245.00 and dressed purchases at 385.00. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was Thursday with live purchases at mostly 245.00 and dressed purchases at mostly 385.00.

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 238.00 – 246.50 and from 380.00 – 385.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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