Pre-Market Brief: Stocks Move Higher As Focus Shifts to Fed

December S&P 500 futures (ESZ22) are trending up +0.85% this morning after three major US benchmark indices finished the regular session in the red as investors brace for further corporate earnings results and an expected interest rate increase from U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers this week. Three major U.S. stock indexes were weighted down primarily by losses in the Technology, Basic Materials, and Utilities sectors.

The central bank is widely anticipated to hike interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday at the end of its two-day policy meeting. Investors will also focus on comments from Fed officials after the policy decision, holding out hopes for a less aggressive hiking policy in the future.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.0% chance of a 75 basis point rate increase this week and a 51.6% chance of a 50 basis point hike at December's monetary policy meeting.

"It is pretty much a foregone conclusion, it has been almost a 100% probability for at least three weeks now that it would be three-quarters of a point and very little chance that it is going to be more or less than that, but there is always apprehension on the part of everyone just waiting for that to be done," said Randy Frederick, a managing director, trading and derivatives, Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings data in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that September JOLTs Job Openings will stand at 10.000M, compared to the previous value of 10.053M.

Also, investors will be closely watching the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which was at 50.9 in September. Economists foresee the October figure to come in at 50.0.

U.S. Manufacturing PMI data will come in today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 49.9 in October, compared to September’s value of 52.0.

In the bond markets, United States 10-Year rates are at 3.971%, down -2.59%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +1.22% this morning, with investors focusing on the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. Moreover, investors appear to be betting that the Fed will ease its interest rate hikes after the November meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday that the peak of the current cycle of interest-rate hikes must ensure that inflation brings back to the 2% target over the medium term. At the same time, Eurozone inflation advanced to +10.7% on a year-over-year basis, suggesting the ECB still has a lot of work to do with its rate hikes.

U.K. Nationwide HPI, Germany Import Price Index, Switzerland procure.ch PMI, and U.K. Manufacturing data were released today. 

U.K. Nationwide HPI has been reported at +7.2% y/y in October, weaker than expectations of +8.3% y/y.

The German September Import Price Index stood at 29.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of 31.0% y/y.

Switzerland's October procure.ch PMI came in at 54.9, weaker than expectations of 56.0.

U.K. October Manufacturing PMI stood at 46.2, stronger than expectations of 45.8.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +2.62%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.33%.

China’s Shanghai Composite today closed higher, rebounding from a near three-year low as weak economic data boosted hopes of stimulus measures. The Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data showed that the manufacturing sector contracted for a third consecutive month in October amid new COVID-related disruptions. However, the data fueled expectations that the government would increase stimulus spending to support economic growth.

At the same time, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today and hit a new 1-month high, fueled by gains in the Electrical/Machinery, Machinery, and Shipbuilding sectors. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down 3.16% to 22.95.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Varonis Systems (VRNS) plunged over -29% in pre-market trading after the company reported mixed Q3 results and provided weak FY22 guidance. In addition, Jefferies cut its price target on the stock to $30 from $35. 

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co (GT) tumbled over -8% in pre-market trading after the company delivered downbeat Q3 results.

Hologic Inc (HOLX) climbed about +5% in pre-market trading after the company reported upbeat Q3 results.

Stryker Corporation (SYK) slid over -5% in pre-market trading after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q3 results and provided a soft FY22 outlook.

Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR) rose about +4% in pre-market trading after the company topped EPS and revenue expectations in Q3.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) rose about +1% in pre-market trading after Exane BNP Paribas upgraded the stock to neutral from underperform.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - November 1st

Eli Lilly (LLY), Pfizer (PFE), Toyota Motor ADR (TM), BP ADR (BP), AMD (AMD), Eaton (ETN), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), McKesson (MCK), Public Storage (PSA), Uber Tech (UBER), Thomson Reuters (TRI), Devon Energy (DVN), Fidelity National Info (FIS), Phillips 66 (PSX), Ecolab (ECL), Sysco (SYY), AIG (AIG), KKR & Co (KKR), Simon Property (SPG), Energy Transfer (ET), Prudential Financial (PRU), Mitsui & Company (MITSY), Electronic Arts (EA), MPLX LP (MPLX), IDEXX Labs (IDXX), WEC Energy (WEC), Verisk (VRSK), ONEOK (OKE), Eversource Energy (ES), Extra Space Storage (EXR), Sirius XM (SIRI), Edison (EIX), Ecopetrol ADR (EC), Koninklijke DSM ADR (RDSMY), Paycom Soft (PAYC), Xylem (XYL), CenterPoint Energy (CNP), Clorox (CLX), Waters (WAT), Yum China Holdings (YUMC), Westinghouse Air Brake (WAB), Incyte (INCY), Markel (MKL), FMC (FMC), Zebra (ZBRA), Leidos (LDOS), Healthpeak Properties (PEAK), Fresenius ADR (FSNUY), Nippon Steel ADR (NPSCY), Ovintiv (OVV), American Financial (AFG), Match Group (MTCH), TDK ADR (TTDKY), Bio-Techne (TECH), Neurocrine (NBIX), Molson Coors Brewing A (TAPa), Molson Coors Brewing B (TAP), Fidelity Financial (FNF), West Japan Railway ADR (WJRYY), Caesars (CZR), Henry Schein (HSIC), AGCO (AGCO), Unum (UNM), Liberty Global (LBTYA), Liberty Global B (LBTYB), Liberty Global C (LBTYK), Regal Beloit (RRX), Liberty Latin America (LILA), Liberty Latin America C (LILAK), DCP Midstream (DCP), Lear (LEA), Fresenius Medical Care ADR (FMS), Generac (GNRC), R1 RCM (RCM), Assurant (AIZ), Sealed Air (SEE), Renaissancere (RNR), Voya Financial Inc (VOYA), Stifel (SF), H&R Block (HRB), Brixmor Property (BRX), Sensata Tech (ST), Livent (LTHM), Inspire Medical Systems (INSP), Magnolia Oil (MGY), Agree Realty (ADC), Topbuild Corp (BLD), The Hanover Insurance (THG), LYFT (LYFT), IAA (IAA), Valaris (VAL), Rogers (ROG), IPG Photonics (IPGP), Univar Inc (UNVR), Enact Holdings (ACT), Louisiana-Pacific (LPX), Premier Inc (PINC), Colliers International (CIGI), Sharp ADR (SHCAY), Freshworks (FRSH), Cirrus (CRUS), Sunoco LP (SUN), Hamilton Lane (HLNE), Under Armour C (UA), Under Armour A (UAA), Amedisys (AMED), Rostelekom DRC (ROSYY), Ameresco (AMRC), Vishay Intertechnology (VSH), PJT Partners Inc (PJT), NCR (NCR), CorVel (CRVL), Ultragenyx (RARE), Mercury (MRCY), Terex (TEX), JBG SMITH Properties (JBGS), O-I Glass (OI), Camping World Holdings (CWH), Genworth (GNW), Artisan Partners AM (APAM), Enpro Industries (NPO), Consol Energy (CEIX), LGI Homes (LGIH), Arconic (ARNC), Four Corners Property Trust Inc (FCPT), Kadant (KAI), ArcBest Corp (ARCB), Sabre Corpo (SABR), Coursera (COUR), NMI Holdings (NMIH), Silicon Motion (SIMO), Easterly Government Properties (DEA), Inventrust Properties (IVT), KAR Auction Services (KAR), Myriad Genetics (MYGN), iQIYI (IQ), Silk Road Medical (SILK), Mercury General (MCY), Sixth Street Specialty Lending (TSLX), Cassava Sciences (SAVA), Huron (HURN), A10 Network (ATEN), CVR Partners LP (UAN), Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP), ProPetro (PUMP), Kayne Anderson MLP Invest Closed (KYN), Pathward Financial (CASH), Global Industrial Co (GIC), B&G Foods (BGS), Nexpoint Residential Trust Inc (NXRT), 3D Systems (DDD), Ero Copper (ERO), National Research (NRC).

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