Nat-Gas Prices Jump on Forecasts for Colder U.S. Temps

Nov Nymex natural gas (NGX22) on Tuesday closed up by +0.367 (+5.67%).

Nov nat-gas on Tuesday closed sharply higher.  A decline in the dollar index Tuesday to a 2-week low sparked short-covering in nat-gas prices.  Gains in nat-gas prices accelerated Tuesday after forecaster Atmospheric G2 said that cooler-than-normal weather is seen across the eastern U.S. from October 9-13, which should boost heating demand for nat-gas.

Nov nat-gas prices on Monday tumbled to a 2-1/2 month low on record U.S. nat-gas production and reduced U.S. domestic nat-gas demand due to the power outages in the Southeast from Hurricane Ian.  BNEF data showed lower-48 state U.S. nat-gas production on Monday climbed to a record high of 103.7 bcf.

In an underlying bullish factor, last week's sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 undersea nat-gas pipeline and the massive leak under the Baltic Sea means there will be no near-term chance that Russia might reopen the pipeline to begin delivering gas to Europe again.  Prior to the explosions, Russia's state-owned gas company Gazprom had cut off the delivery of gas through that pipeline to Europe under the pretext of technical issues.

Lower-48 state total gas production on Tuesday was 100.8 bcf, up +5.4% y/y.  Lower-48 state total gas demand Tuesday was 67.8 bcf/day, up +1.8% y/y.  LNG net flow to U.S. LNG export terminals Tuesday was 10.6 bcf/day, down -15% w/w.

An increase in U.S. electricity output is bullish for nat-gas demand from utility providers.  The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended Sep 24 rose +4.7% y/y to 79,329 GWh (gigawatt hours).  Also, cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending Sep 24 rose +2.7% y/y to 4,125,781 GWh.

Nat-gas prices have support as EU countries agreed to cut nat-gas demand from Russia by 15% over the next eight months.  Also, Russia recently slashed nat-gas exports to Europe to 20% of capacity, putting upward pressure on European nat-gas prices.  Russia has already halted nat-gas shipments to Demark, Finland, Bulgaria, Netherlands, Poland, and Latvia and reduced supplies to Germany for not acceding to its demand for gas payments in Russian rubles.

Nat-gas prices have seen downward pressure from the prolonged outage at the Freeport LNG export terminal, which curbed U.S nat-gas exports and put upward pressure on domestic supplies.   The Freeport terminal accounted for about 20% of all U.S. nat-gas exports before the explosion on June 8 knocked it offline.  The Freeport LNG terminal receives about 2 bcf, or 2.5%, of the output from the lower-48 U.S. states.  The Freeport terminal said Aug 23 that it won't reopen until early to mid-November, later than a previous announcement of a restart in October.

Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices as it showed U.S. nat gas inventories rose +103 bcf to 2,977 bcf in the week ended Sep 23, above expectations of a +96 bcf increase and above the  5-year average of +77 bcf.  However, inventories remain tight and are down -6.1% y/y and -9.3% below their 5-year seasonal average.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended Sep 30 fell by -1 rig to 159, falling back slightly from a 3-year high of 166 rigs the week ended Sep 9.  Active rigs have more than doubled from the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
 

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