Beans Fade to Red on Tuesday

Initial strength in the soy market had futures looking at a turnaround Tuesday to follow the sharp drop to the week. The +26 cent gains were faded through the afternoon and beans ultimately settled with another day of 1 to 3 1/4 cent losses. Soymeal futures stayed red during most of the session, ultimately closing down by as much as $6.50/ton. Soybean oil also faded the initial turnaround Tuesday attempt, closing 2 to 45 points weaker. 

NOAA’s updated 7-day QPF shows a little rainfall in Wyoming and MT drifting into W. NE – 1/4 – 1” accumulated. Apart from that and the heavy Hurricane Ian rainfall along the South East Coastline, most of the country and the heartland itself is expected to be bone dry making for excellent bean harvesting weather. 

Safras and Mercado estimated that 2% of the 22/23 Brazilian soybean crop was planted as of 9/26. Ag Rural estimated 1.5% was in the ground. Those compare to the 0.8% average pace, with Parana well ahead of normal. 

The trade average guess for soybean’s 21/22 carryout is 243 mbu. NASS will release their count on Friday – USDA’s September WASDE estimate was 240 mbu. The full range of pre-report estimates is from 215 to 275 mbu according to a Bloomberg poll, and last year’s stocks were 257 mbu. 

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.08, down 3 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $13.64 1/8, down 4 1/4 cents,

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.14, down 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.17, down 1 3/4 cents,