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Sugar #11 Oct '19 (SBV19)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Retreat on a Slide in Crude Oil and Weakness in the Brazilian Real

Mar NY world sugar #11 (SBH20) on Tuesday closed down by -0.16 (-1.31%), and Dec ICE London white sugar #5 (SWZ19) closed down by -0.40 (-0.12%). Sugar prices retreated Tuesday on weakness in crude oil and also in the Brazilian real. Crude prices fell more than -5% Tuesday, which is negative for ethanol prices and may encourage Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol production, thus boosting sugar supplies. Mar NY sugar posted a 2-week high and Dec London sugar climbed to a 1-month high Monday after crude oil prices surged to a 3-3/4 month high. A slump in the Brazilian real to a 1-week low against the dollar Tuesday also pressured sugar prices since the weaker real encourages export selling by Brazil's sugar producers. In a potentially bullish factor for NY sugar prices, last Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed that funds boosted their net-short position by 29,486 contracts in the week ended Sep 10 to 218,896 contracts, a record high in data going back to 2006, which could provide fuel for a short-covering rally. Another bullish factor for sugar was last Tuesday's data from Unica showing that sugar production in Brazil's Center-South region in the 2019/20 marketing year through August fell -4.85 y/y to 17.971 MMT. Unica projects that increased ethanol output in Brazil will cut Brazil 2019/20 Center-South sugar production by -5.7% y/y to 25 MMT, a 14-year low. Mar NY sugar prices last Thursday posted a contract low and the nearest-futures contract (V19) dropped to an 11-1/2 month low on the outlook for robust sugar supplies to persist. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) last Monday said that a global sugar deficit for 2019/20 will be insufficient to erase huge global stockpiles since a "war on sugar" is hurting sugar consumption. ISO on Sep 2 said it sees global 2019/20 sugar production falling by -2.3% y/y to 172 MMT. ISO also cut its 2018/19 global sugar surplus estimate to +1.7 MMT from a previous estimate of +1.8 MMT and projected a 2019/20 global sugar deficit of -4.8 MMT. Concern about larger exports from India is undercutting sugar prices. India's government on Aug 28 approved extending sugar subsidies to subsidize exports of as much as 6 MMT of sugar in 2019/20, which is bearish for sugar prices since those exports will add to global sugar supplies. India is struggling to reduce near-record sugar ending stocks that are expected to be at 14.2 MMT on Oct 1, which is the start of the 2019/20 sugar season, and are expected to increase to 16.2 MMT at the start of the 2020/21 sugar season.

Contract Specifications

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Sugar #11
Contract Size
112,000 pounds (50 long tonnes)
Tick Size
0.01 cents per pound ($11.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
2:30a.m. - 12:00p.m. (Settles 11:55a.m.) CST
Point Value
First Notice Date
10/01/19 (13 days)
Expiration Date
09/30/19 (12 days)

Seasonal Chart

Sugar #11 Oct '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Oct Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Sep 10, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
548,174 (+947)
416,061 (-25,262)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
223,325 (-7,641)
365,247 (+14,814)
Producers - Long / Short
352,562 (+7,237)
376,090 (-21,258)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
169,243 (-2,755)
13,602 (-469)
Managed Money - Long / Short
138,190 (-9,038)
347,365 (+15,625)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
85,135 (+1,397)
17,882 (-811)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
10.68 +2.34%
on 09/12/19
11.65 -6.18%
on 08/23/19
-0.71 (-6.10%)
since 08/16/19
10.68 +2.34%
on 09/12/19
12.84 -14.88%
on 06/28/19
-1.90 (-14.81%)
since 06/18/19
10.68 +2.34%
on 09/12/19
14.35 -23.83%
on 10/24/18
-1.09 (-9.07%)
since 09/18/18

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Sugar Prices Retreat on a Slide in Crude Oil and Weakness in the Brazilian Real

Mar NY world sugar #11 (SBH20) on Tuesday closed down by -0.16 (-1.31%), and Dec ICE London white sugar #5 (SWZ19) closed down by -0.40 (-0.12%). Sugar prices retreated Tuesday on weakness in crude oil...

Coffee Prices Fall to 1-Week Lows on Weaker Brazilian Real and Bigger U.S. Coffee Inventories

Dec arabica coffee (KCZ19) on Tuesday closed down -3.95 (-3.79%), and Jan ICE robusta coffee (DFF0) closed down -15 (-1.11%). Coffee prices tumbled to 1-week lows Tuesday on weakness in the Brazilian real,...

Cocoa Prices Close Higher as They Extend Their 2-Week Rally

Dec ICE NY cocoa (CCZ19) on Tuesday closed up +11 (+0.46%), and Dec ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ19) closed up +3 (+0.16%). Cocoa prices extended their 2-week rally Tuesday with Dec NY cocoa posting a new 6-week...

Cotton Showing Triple Digit Losses at Midday

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Cocoa Prices Extend 2-Week Rally with NY Cocoa at a Fresh 6-Week High

Dec ICE NY cocoa (CCZ19) this morning is up +11 (+0.46%), and Dec ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ19) is up +4 (+0.22%). Cocoa prices extended their 2-week rally today with Dec NY cocoa posting a new 6-week high....

Coffee Prices Slide on Weakness in the Brazilian Real and on Bigger U.S. Coffee Inventories

Dec arabica coffee (KCZ19) this morning is down -1.50 (-1.44%), and Jan ICE robusta coffee (DFF0) is down -4 (-0.30%). Coffee prices are lower today on weakness in the Brazilian real which is down -0.50%...

Sugar Prices Retreat on a Slide in Crude Oil and Weakness in the Brazilian Real

Mar NY world sugar #11 (SBH20) this morning is down by -0.14 (-1.14%), and Dec ICE London white sugar #5 (SWZ19) is down by -0.10 (-0.03%). Sugar prices are moving lower this morning on weakness in crude...

Has December Coffee Bottomed ?

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 56% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 11.35
1st Resistance Point 11.14
Last Price 10.93
1st Support Level 10.82
2nd Support Level 10.71

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52-Week High 14.35
Fibonacci 61.8% 12.95
Fibonacci 50% 12.52
Fibonacci 38.2% 12.08
Last Price 10.93
52-Week Low 10.68

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