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Hard Red Wheat Mar '18 (KEH18)

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Hard Red Wheat Futures Market News and Commentary

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures settled with most winter wheat contracts steady to 2 cents lower, as MPLS was mixed. Strength in the dollar pressured the market. Front month CBT and KC saw slight gains this week, with MPLS up 3.15%. CFTC data showed that spec funds in KC wheat futures and options added to their record reported net short position as of Tuesday (to 51,380 contracts). Their net short in Chicago was 73,506 contracts on that date. Total old crop export commitments are now 89% of USDA’s export projection, lagging the normal pace of 99%. Taiwan purchased 110,000 MT of US wheat in their tender on Friday. South Korean importers purchased a total of 125,000 MT of optional origin wheat in tenders on Friday.May 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.66, down 1/2 cent,May 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.45, down 2 cents,May 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.72 1/4, up 1 cent --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
KC Hard Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
KCBT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,485/1,350
First Notice Date
02/28/18
Expiration Date
03/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Hard Red Wheat Mar '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 19, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
132,555 (+6,428)
114,014 (+4,095)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
86,536 (-860)
115,930 (-88)
Producers - Long / Short
86,548 (+8,874)
99,286 (+4,087)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
38,175 (-2,371)
6,896 (+83)
Managed Money - Long / Short
57,793 (-1,437)
110,486 (-94)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
28,743 (+577)
5,444 (+6)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
460-0 +11.25%
on 02/22/18
533-4 -4.08%
on 03/05/18
+42-0 (+8.94%)
since 02/14/18
3-Month
415-2 +23.24%
on 12/15/17
533-4 -4.08%
on 03/05/18
+93-4 (+22.36%)
since 12/14/17
52-Week
410-4 +24.67%
on 12/11/17
614-0 -16.65%
on 07/05/17
+7-6 (+1.54%)
since 03/14/17

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Soybean futures ended the Friday session with 6 to 7 1/4 cent losses in most contracts, pressured by product values. May was down 0.6% on the week. Meal futures were down 30 cents/ton, with soy oil 44...

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures settled with most winter wheat contracts steady to 2 cents lower, as MPLS was mixed. Strength in the dollar pressured the market. Front month CBT and KC saw slight gains this week, with MPLS...

Corn Market News and Commentary

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Wheat Market News and Commentary

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 72% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 512-3
1st Resistance Point 512-1
Last Price 511-6s
1st Support Level 511-5
2nd Support Level 511-3

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52-Week High 614-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 536-2
Fibonacci 50% 512-2
Last Price 511-6s
Fibonacci 38.2% 488-2
52-Week Low 410-4

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