Coffee Mar '26 (KCH26)
Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary
July arabica coffee (KCN26) on Friday closed down -8.80 (-3.19%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) closed down -122 (-3.50%).
Coffee prices plummeted on Friday, with arabica posting a 9-month low and robusta posting a 1-week low. Â Weakness in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) is undercutting coffee prices, as the real fell to a 5-week low against the dollar on Friday. Â The weaker real encourages export sales from Brazil's coffee producers.
Expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop are negative for prices. Â Last Thursday, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest will increase by 12% y/y to 71.4 million bags. Â On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina's forecast of 75.4 million bags (+15.5% y/y). Â On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags. Â Meanwhile, Stone... Read more
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