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Gold Apr '23 (GCJ23)

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Gold Futures Market News and Commentary

Dollar is Slightly Higher as Weak Stocks Boost Liquidity Demand

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up +0.04%.  The weakness in stocks today has boosted some liquidity demand for the dollar.  However, gains in the dollar are limited after US January consumer prices rose less than expected, boosting speculation that the Fed will be able to resume cutting interest rates.

US Jan CPI rose +2.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.5% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 7 months.  Jan core CPI rose +2.5% y/y, right on expectations and the smallest pace of increase in 4.75 years.

The dollar sank to a 4-year low late last month when President Trump said he's comfortable with the recent weakness in the dollar.  Also, the dollar remains under pressure as foreign investors pull capital from the US amid a growing budget deficit, fiscal profligacy, and widening political polarization. 

Swaps markets are discounting the odds at 10% for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

The dollar continues to see underlyin... Read more

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