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Grains Futures Prices

Sat, Oct 24th, 2020
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Futures Market News and Commentary

Corn Higher at Close

Corn rallied in the afternoon and added 1 to 3 cents to the week’s move. For the week, Dec futures were up 4.29%. The carry (a.k.a contango) shrank to only 1 cent per bushel to March. USDA announced a private export sale of 100k MT of corn to unknown under the daily reporting system. The NWS 8-14 day forecast shows drier conditions for Midwest fieldwork during election week. CFTC data from Tuesday’s close showed managed money was 218,825 contracts net long for corn. That was up 47,956 contracts on 17,404 contracts more OI. Managed money has not been this net long since March of ’18. Commercials added 118,385 new shorts, expanding their net short 80k contracts to 469,159.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.19 1/4, up 3 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.20 1/4, up 2 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $4.21 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $4.20 1/4, up 1 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soy Rallies into Weekend

Soybeans rallied off of midday losses and ended the week with 4 to 10 cent gains. November outgained Jan by 3 cents from Friday to Friday, adding to the inverse/backwardation. Carry in Chinese beans is 17 yuan/MT (~7 cents/bu) from November to January. Carry for Dalian No 2 soybeans is 92 yuan/MT (~37 cents) form Nov to Jan. CBT meal futures also rallied off of midday losses and closed the session $2.10 to $4.10/ton higher. That added to the week’s gain of $18.90/ton from Friday to Friday. Bean oil futures closed the session with 34 to 42 point gains. Soybean spec traders covered 6,176 shorts on the week ending 10/20. That left spec traders 231,892 contracts net short as of the 20th. The CoT report also showed a 4,556 contract stronger net long in soymeal. Bean oil specs were reported at 82,034 net long.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.83 3/4, up 10 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.81, up 8 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.67 1/2,... Read more

Wheat Gains on Friday Trading

Front month wheat futures were higher on Friday. CBT wheat closed the last trading day of the week with 4 3/4 to 10 cent gains. KC HRW gained 7 to 9 1/2 cents. The winter wheats were up 1.2 and 2% on the week respectively. MGE HRS futures closed the Friday session up 2 1/2 4 1/4 cents. December HRS futures gained 17 3/4 cents from Friday to Friday. CFTC’s weekly data release showed CBT wheat spec traders were 11,138 contracts more net long on 10/20 to 49,728. Managed money’s OI was up 12,818 contracts. Managed money’s HRW OI decreased by 4,335 contracts as the net long strengthened to 38,146 contracts. For spring wheat futures, managed money’s longest lasting reported net short has ceased. Spec traders flipped to 4,492 contracts net long as of the Tuesday data from CFTC. South Korea purchased 65,000 MT of U.S. feed wheat. Taiwan purchased 88,635 MT of U.S. wheat in an international tender. Egypt’s GASC purchased 165k MT of Russian wheat.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed... Read more

SRW Wheat Basis: The Sore Thumb

No matter where one looks, this has been a wild week for basis markets. The cmdty National Soybean Basis Index has jumped almost 3 cents since last Friday’s calculation, the corn’s index is up 2 cents, hard red spring (HRS) wheat basis has gained 1.5 cents, and hard red winter (HRW) basis has firmed 0.5 cent. What am I missing in this list? Oh, that’s right, soft red winter (SRW) basis. A look at the daily chart for the cmdty National SRW Wheat Basis Index (SRBI, weighted national average) shows it has actually weakened this week. The SRBI was calculated Thursday at 31.4 cents under December Chicago futures as compared to last Friday’s calculation of 28.7 cents under. If we look at the five major basis indexes as fingers on a hang, the SRBI sticks out like a sore thumb. Why, though, has SRW basis struggled while the other markets have flourished? Futures across the board have rallied this week, though Dec Chicago is flirting with erasing its early gains and closing below last Friday’s settlement of $6.2525. Meanwhile, the US dollar has not gained much bullish momentum. The key seems to be, despite all the talk of possibility to the contrary, demand has not picked up for US SRW wheat. Recent weeks have shown dismal export shipments, and the SRW cash price is running more than $2.00 over cash corn quieting any conversation of possibly working into the domestic feed ration. My thought is price distribution is acting as it should, with last week’s calculation of the cmdty National SRW Wheat Price Index putting it in the upper 1% of its distribution range, indicating it is overvalued and primed for a selloff. When that happens, a natural reaction is for basis to start to falter. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
Corn Basis: Continued Climb

Grain and oilseed market volatility continues to ramp up, a factor we are watching play out in basis markets as well as futures. If you’ve been tracking daily changes in the various cmdty National Basis Indexes over the last few weeks, you’ll recall we’ve seen some extraordinary moves. For example, Wednesday afternoon saw the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index calculated at 53.1 cents under November futures, a full 1.1 cents stronger than Tuesday’s number of 54.2 cents under and last Friday’s final 55.0 cents under. Similarly, the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI) was calculated Wednesday at 26.3 cents under December futures versus the previous day’s 27.1. cents under and the previous Friday’s 27.4 cents under. Keep in mind we are talking about national averages here, with normal changes mere fractions and a week’s worth of activity usually amounting to a 0.25 cent to 0.50 cent. Of all the index charts, the NCBI’s daily is one of the more interesting as it shows an almost unbroken string of slow, steady climbs since rolling from the September 2020 futures to the December contract on September 1. That day saw the NCBI calculated at 35.0 cents under meaning basis has appreciated almost 9 cents in short December hedges. Why the continued basis strength in corn? For the most part US producers are tucking newly harvested bushels away in on-farm storage while demand remains firm, mostly from domestic feeders. Recently, weather has turned winter-like across parts of the US Plains and Midwest putting a damper on harvest. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
Soybean Basis: The Spirit of the Season

Halloween is just around the corner, and the soybean basis market seems to be getting into the spirit of the season. Monday afternoon saw the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) calculated at 54.8 cents under November futures, firming from last Friday’s calculation of 55.0 cents under. This doesn’t seem like much, maybe nothing more than a function of rounding or “an undigested bit of beef, a blot of mustard, or a crumb of cheese, a fragment of an underdone potato” as Ebenezer Scrooge might say to Marley’s ghost. But in the grand scheme of things the resilience of soybean basis is impressive when we consider what it has absorbed to this point. Another piece of data released Monday afternoon was NASS’ latest guess of US soybean harvest to be 75% complete as of Sunday, October 18. With no carry in the soybean futures market’s forward curve, and the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) in the upper 5% of its price distribution range (based on last Friday’s calculation of $9.95), much of what has been harvested in the US this harvest has likely been sold. This wave of cash supplies into the pipeline would be expected to weaken the basis market, but it hasn’t. Yes, last week saw the NSBI start to show signs it was headed toward the tomb, but like the undead celebrated during this season, it has climbed from its grave. And if demand continues holds firm through late February, at least, the NSBI could turn into quite a monster. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
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