Grains Futures Prices
- Friday, Grain Comments
Points To Consider
- Uncertain U.S. – China Trade Talks Continue. The Corn & Ethanol Report 11/15/19
We kickoff the day with Business Inventories, Export Sales, New York Empire State Manufacturing Index and Retail Sales at 7:30 A.M., Industrial production...
- Here Is My Soybean Trade
Risk/Reward In Your Favor
- Daily Grain & Cotton Commentary
Will decent export sales help support grain prices into the weekend?
- TFM Sunrise Update _ Nov 15, 2019
Grains flat/weak overnight... remain on slippery slope; US/China trade negotiations reach demands from both sides.
- Mid-November Weekly Export Sales
Weely Export Sales are due out this morning.
Futures Market News and Commentary
Corn futures are 3 1/2 cents to 4 cents lower at midday. The one day delayed weekly export sales update showed corn export sales were 19.2% higher wk/wk as of 11/07. The 581,568 MT of sales, however, were only 65.16% of the same week last year. The USDA also reported weekly exports for the week ending 11/07, showing that 602,235 MT, or 23.71 mbu, were shipped for the week. That is 89.5% higher wk/wk, but still well below the same week last year. Corn accumulated shipments are up to 178.78 mbu, 61.23% below last year’s pace. EIA weekly ethanol production averaged 1.03 million barrels per day with stocks at 20.985 million barrels. Strategie Grains cut their 19/20 EU maize crop estimate 100,000 MT to 63.5 MMT, despite an increase in French production.
DEC 19 Corn is at $3.71 3/4, down 4 cents,
MAR 19 Corn is at $3.81 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,
MAY 20 Corn is at $3.87, down 3 3/4 cents
JUL 20 Corn is at $3.92 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents... Read more
Friday wheat futures are lower at midday, with MPLS leading showing the biggest drops. The USDA updated the weekly export sales for the week ending 11/07, with wheat totaling 238,620 MT. Unshipped sales are 25.9% below the same week last year. The USDA reported 453,591 MT of wheat shipments for the same week, pushing the MY accumulated shipments to 11.219 MMT (26.87% above last year’s pace). HRW made up 18.47% of the weekly shipments, down from 38% the previous week. SRW, with a 391% increase wk/wk, made up a 13.71% share of weekly exports for the week ending 11/07. Similarly white wheat saw 268.79% wk/wk increase in shipments, white wheat weekly exports occupied a 33.39% share of all wheat weekly exports. HRS wheat maintains a steady 26.77% share of accumulated wheat exports.
DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.03 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents,
DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.18, down 4 1/4 cents,
DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.06 3/4, down 6 cents
-- p... Read more
Nearby bean futures are up by as much as 3 1/2 cents at midday. Soybean meal is making gains of $3.70/ton loss. Soybean oil is 26 points lower so far. The NOPA Oilseed Crush Report showed 175.397 mbu, which was above trader expectations of ~166.8 mbu. Weekly soybean export sales were 30.7% lower than last week’s bookings, reported at 1.253 MMT as of 11/07. Exports were also lower than the previous week, down 18.3% to 1.274 MMT shipped. Of those weekly shipments, 54.42% were headed for China. China’s accumulated weekly imports continue to outpace last year with their MY accumulated 3.153 MMT of soybeans being 830.12% higher. The MYTD for all accumulated soybean exports have been updated to 10.732 MMT, putting us 11.6% ahead of last MY year’s pace. Soybean meal export sales increased 31.6% wk/wk, but are 21.4% below last year’s pace with 3.297 MMT of total outstanding sales. Soy oil 30,560 MT of weekly sales for the week ending 11/07, with 12,144 MT of shipments for the week.
... Read more
How does national average basis react when the futures market breaks 15 cents and the carry in the nearby futures spread continues to strengthen? Well, judging by Monday afternoon’s calculation of the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average), basis strengthens by almost a penny. While the strength itself isn’t overly surprising given the uptrend seen on the NSBI’s daily and weekly charts, the question remains as to how long soybean basis can hold on with all else about the market growing more bearish. Based on its 5-year seasonal patterns the NSBI tends to strengthen, slowly, to an average peak of about 64 3/4 cents under with the close of the fourth week of December. This ties into the roll from January futures to March, with basis working back to its next peak of 65 1/4 cents under at the close of the first week of February. The latest 2019-2020 calculation of the NSBI (Monday, November 11) came in at 68 cents under the January futures contract, above the 5-year average of 74 cents under. While this marketing year continues to run slightly stronger than the 5-year average, I still consider the NSBI to be neutral. By the time we get to early February this marketing year, the market could be facing the situation of solid production in Brazil and decreased export demand for U.S. supplies. That seems to be what the solid carry in the futures market’s forward curve is telling us. If so, the NSBI would be expected to see more of a contra-seasonal breakdown. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
The end of another week is upon us, with what should be an active harvest weekend (corn and soybeans) ahead. I was interested in what might happen to the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) given Friday’s rally in futures and the stronger carry in Dec-to-March futures spread. The latter was tied to what looked to be a pre-weekend round of hedge pressure, again with the idea harvest could see some progress due to relatively clear weather leading to increased cash sales. Why might newly harvested bushels get sold across the scales? Two reasons: There is little carry in futures spreads and basis remains strong. Which brings me back to my first curiosity. A look at the weekly close-only chart for the NCBI shows a Friday afternoon calculation 15 cents under the December futures contract. This was roughly 3/4 cent stronger than the previous Friday calculation, a rather unimpressive move considering the 12-cent lower close (for the week) posted by Dec corn. My thought is harvest related cash selling kept a lid on the NCBI over the course of the week, setting the stage for what could be an important week when markets fire up again Sunday evening. If commercial selling intensifies, it could be felt in both futures spreads and basis. However, if cash selling isn’t as heavy as expected over the weekend it isn’t out of the question that next week brings renewed commercial buying interest due to the continued tightening of supplies. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
Over the last few weeks in this space I’ve talked a number of times about spring wheat basis. This time, I want to return back to my roots (recall I grew up on a small farm in southwest Kansas) with another look at hard red winter (HRW) wheat basis. If you remember from our last discussion on the cmdty HRW Wheat Basis Index (HWBI, weighted national average) the largest wheat crop the U.S. produces each year was showing a similar divergence between fundamental reads as many other markets in 2019 (“Divergence” from October 12). However, the difference between national average basis and futures spreads has been dissolving of late, leaving the U.S. HRW market with a clear bullish view of supply and demand. Yes, you read that correctly, bullish. The carry in the December-to-March futures spread has been cut to about 9 cents, covering roughly 32% of calculated full commercial carry (insert my simple 1/3-1/3-1/3 measuring technique here, with 33% or less considered bullish). Meanwhile, the HWBI has recently strengthened to 31 cents under (Dec futures) on its weekly close-only chart (week of October 28), before weakening a couple cents this week. Still, 2019-2020 basis is running stronger than what has been seen over the previous 5 marketing years with the high for this week of November sitting at about 41 cents under. With both fundamental reads now bullish, it indicates that at least short-term supply and demand continues to provide support to the market. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.