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Grains Futures Prices

Mon, Jul 15th, 2019
[[ timeframe ]] futures price quotes as of Mon, Jul 15th, 2019.
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Futures Market News and Commentary

Wheat Lower on Monday, NASS Shows Slower Harvest Progress After Close

Wheat futures settle Monday with 10 to 18 1/4 cent losses across the three exchanges. This afternoon, NASS reported that 57% of the winter wheat crop was harvested, a move of just 10% from last week and 14% below the average pace. Spring wheat was 78% headed, with conditions down 2% to 76% gd/ex and 1 point lower on the Brugler500 to 382. Weekly wheat shipments were reported at 315,373 MT for the week of July 11 via USDA’s Export Inspections report. That was slightly above half of the previous week and down 34.45% from the same week in 2018. Russia’s IKAR trimmed the country’s wheat production estimate by another 1 MMT to 77.5 MMT. SEP 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.07 3/4, down 15 1/4 cents, SEP 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.49, down 18 1/4 cents, SEP 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.32 1/2, down 10 1/4 cents --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Soybeans in the Red on Monday

Soybean futures saw 10 to 11 1/2 cent losses in the front months on Monday. August soybean meal was down $3.20/ton, with soy oil 3 points lower. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report showed soybean exports of 854,373 MT for the week ending on July 11. That was a 12.17% jump from the previous week and 34% above the same week last year. Of that total 460,302 MT was headed to China. The monthly NOPA report indicated its members had crushed just 148.843 mbu of soybeans during June, well below analysts’ estimates. That was down 3.85% from May and a 6.53% drop from last June. Soy oil stocks came in just above the average trade estimate at 1.535 billion lb. The weekly USDA Crop Progress report indicated 95% of the crop emerged, with 22% in the blooming stage (49% average). Crop conditions ended up seeing a 1% improvement to 54% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 up 2 points to 347. That’s 20 points higher than the same week in 1993. AUG 19 Soybeans closed at $9.01 3/4, down 11 1/2 cents, SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $9.07 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents, NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.20, down 11 1/2 cents, JAN 20 Soybeans closed at $9.32 1/4, down 10 3/4 cents, AUG 19 Soybean Meal closed at $311.60, down $3.20, AUG 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.28, down $0.03 --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Corn Posts Double Digit Losses to Start the Week

Corn futures closed the Monday session with most nearby contracts 10 to 13 1/4 cents lower. The Export Inspections report indicated that 676,485 MT of corn was shipped in the week that ended on July 11. That was down 6.23% from last week and just above half of what was inspected for the same week last year. Another shipment of 51,075 MT of sorghum was headed to China. NASS reported that 17% of the US corn crop was silking as of July 14, vs. the 5-year average of 42%. They also reported conditions up 1% at 58% gd/ex, which converts to a 1-point rise on the Brugler500 index to 353. That is still the lowest reading for week 28 since the drought-stricken year of 2012. SEP 19 Corn closed at $4.41, down 13 1/4 cents, DEC 19 Corn closed at $4.47, down 12 1/4 cents, MAR 20 Corn closed at $4.53 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.56 1/2, down 10 1/4 cents --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Soybean Basis: Seasonal Train Keeps a Rollin'

The cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) continues to chug along in its seasonal uptrend, strengthening another 4 1/2 cents last week despite a 37-cent rally by the August futures contract. Meanwhile, export demand continues to run below projected pace meaning an additional 100 mb or so could ultimately be added to 2018-2019 ending stocks. But the seasonal uptrend in national average soybean basis is showing no signs of slowing. Seasonally the NSBI tends to strengthen into the last week of July, finally breaking with the roll from the August futures contract to the September. Last Friday saw the NSBI calculated at 69 1/4 cents under the August, with the weakest mark the final week of July registered at 60 1/2 cents under. The NSBI has reeled in this weakest level over the course of the 2018-2019 marketing year, falling to 30 cents below at the close of the third week of September 2018. The catalyst for the runaway train that is national average soybean basis continues to be fear of tightening supplies as we move into the next marketing year at the end of August. The new-crop November 2019-to-July 2020 forward curve closed at a carry of 34 1/2 cents on Friday (July 12), covering roughly 36% of calculated full commercial carry (based on CME’s revised storage rage of 8 cents per month per bushel starting with the November 2019 contract). This is a neutral-to-bullish level of coverage, meaning we’ll need to pay close attention to the spread’s trend heading toward the end of the month. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
KS HRW Basis: There's Something Happening Here

As the old Buffalo Springfield song puzzled on back in the 60s, “There’s something happening here.” By “here” I mean Kansas, the heart of the hard red winter wheat growing area (and also my original home), and the “something happening” is HRW wheat basis has started to strengthen again this week despite a rally in the Kansas City wheat futures market. Heading into Friday’s session, HRW basis could be interesting. According to weekly government reports (released last Monday, July 8) the Kansas wheat harvest was supposedly 61% complete. This was up 33 percentage points from the previous week’s report, but still behind The Wheat State’s 5-year average (for that time frame) of 84% completed. This past week has likely seen another large swath of fields be cut (Kansan for harvested), meaning more cash grain has likely been sold into the market. Yet a look at the cmdty County Indexes for Saline and Reno (two terminal sites for HRW wheat in the state) counties as well as the regional index for south-central Kansas (an area including Wichita and Sedgewick County) shows HRW basis with an uptick this week. Even if I throw in the regional index for the southwest corner (including Garden City), I still see some strength across the board. All this while the futures market rocketed to a 20-cent gain Thursday. It’s possible as harvest quickly starts to wind down, cash sales could begin to slow providing support to basis. Also, the most recent weekly export shipment update shows this year’s shipments up more than 330% from the previous marketing year, though it’s still early enough to not get overly excited about this statistic. Whatever is going on, the market is indicating it needs more cash HRW bushels in the pipeline. To finish off the song lyric I started this piece with, “What it is ain’t exactly clear.” Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
Corn Basis: Mighty Mo's Impact

The last time I talked about spot corn basis, July 2 “The Beast in the East”, the topic was the key states east of the Mississippi River that continue to see stronger than normal basis due to the wet spring and summer. This has led those holding 2018 cash grain, mostly on farm, to keep bushels off the market in hopes of selling it later into a strong market rally to make up for some 2019 production losses. As discussed at the time, this strategy continues to work in their favor as futures and basis continue to move higher. But what about further west? And not just west of the Mississippi, but back to where this year’s problems started with historic flooding along the Missouri River (Mighty Mo)? For this piece I’m looking at the cmdty Regional Corn Basis Indexes for the Four Corners area of southeast Nebraska (ZCBANE90.CM), southwest Iowa (ZCBAIA70.CM), northwest Missouri (ZCBAMO10.CM), and northeast Kansas (ZCBAKS30.CM). As with the other regions we’ve looked at this summer, these four also continue to show contra-seasonal strength, rallying at a time when they normal start to weaken. Recall the horrific pictures from this past March of burst grain bins and swollen grain surrounded by flood waters. A trip down I-29 from Omaha to Kansas City, a stretch of road now open after months of being closed, shows the catastrophic aftermath that farmers in this Four Corners region continue to deal with. It’s no surprise corn basis continues to firm since early June, with Nebraska gaining about 18 cents, Iowa 22 cents, Missouri 8 cents, and Kansas about 10 cents. In many cases across the area, the corn no longer exists, putting the region, generally, in a deficit situation. This should continue to support basis indefinitely, with no end-date for the situation in this Four Corner area to return to “normal”. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
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