Grains Futures Prices
- Stay Short Soybeans !
- Grains Report 04/24/19
DJ Canadian 2019/20 Principal Field Crop Area – StatsCan WINNIPEG–Following is Statistics Canada’s 2019/20 estimates of principal field crop area...
- Morning Grain Market Research
It seems that whenever you are reaching close to a culmination of a move, people seem to come up with more and more news, often time stretching reality...
- Northern Dreams
Unicorns and Fairies?
- Earnings Excellent Investors Eye Boeings Before Open. The Corn & Ethanol Report 04/24/19
Boeing’s earnings before the bell has a lot of analysts thinking that until the investigation is over and the planes are either grounded or no [...]
- Nautilus Voyage
Futures Market News and Commentary
Corn futures are showing 2 to 3 cent losses in most nearby contracts at midday. The ethanol market is weaker, following a slight uptick in stocks. Weakness in wheat is also dragging on corn. This morning’s EIA report showed ethanol production in the week of 4/19 picking up by 32,000 barrels per day to 1.048 million bpd. That was the largest weekly output since early January. Stocks were up just 71,000 barrels to 22.747 million barrels, with the Gulf and East Coast the only regions seen higher. May 19 Corn is at $3.49 1/4, down 2 cents, Jul 19 Corn is at $3.58 1/4, down 2 cents, Sep 19 Corn is at $3.66 1/4, down 2 cents Dec 19 Corn is at $3.77 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Soybean futures are down 4 to 5 cents on Wednesday. Spillover from the grains is dragging the market lower at midday. Meal futures are 30 cents/ton lower, with May soy oil 2 points in negative territory. May options expire on Friday. Canadian Canola acreage is expected to be down 6.6% from last year at 21.314 million acres, based off Stats Canada data released this morning. That was expected heading into today. Soybean acreage is also seen down 10.7% yr/yr at 5.64 million acres. Weakness in the Brazilian Real vs. the dollar is also seen as pressure on Wednesday. May 19 Soybeans are at $8.57 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents, Jul 19 Soybeans are at $8.71 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents, Aug 19 Soybeans are at $8.77 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents, Sep 19 Soybeans are at $8.82 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents, May 19 Soybean Meal is at $300.70, down $0.30 May 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.04, down $0.02 --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Wheat futures are trading 6 to 8 cents lower in most contracts on Wednesday, following confirmation of higher Canadian acres. Canadian wheat acres are seen at 25.674 million acres for 2019, up 3.8% from last year and above most estimates according to this morning’s Stats Canada report. That jump in acreage is due to a 12% yr/yr increase in spring wheat acres, at 19.387 million. That is also a 22.69% jump in spring wheat acres since 2017. Durum acres are down 18.8% at 5.021 million acres. May 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.32 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents, May 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.06 1/2, down 8 cents, May 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.04 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
After Tuesday’s meltdown in the grain markets, I was curious what national average basis readings would do overnight into Wednesday morning. At the top of my list of markets to check was soybeans, given the 15 1/4-cent loss registered by the July contract. Why the July? Looking at open interest, the July has well over double the contracts being held than the May. Also, the May contract is approaching its delivery period at the end of the month, meaning grain merchandisers have likely rolled their bids to the July already because (drumroll please) of the strong carry in the May-to-July futures spread. As of early Wednesday, this spread was still showing a carry of 13 1/2 cents, covering roughly 81% of calculated full commercial carry. A look at the daily national average basis chart (cmdty National Soybean Price Index minus the July futures contract) shows a reading of 94 1/2 cents under Tuesday afternoon. This was 1 cent stronger than Monday afternoon’s calculation, and probably about all I would expect. Still, given the strong double-digit break in futures there was a possibility basis could’ve shown a bit more strength. Those who have rolled their 2018-2019 short-hedges forward to the July were likely hoping for more. I remained concerned about the overall slowness of this uptrend (strengthening) for national average soybean basis, even though the pace of exports has picked up over the last month or so (the next update for marketing year shipments is set for the morning of Thursday, April 25). Once all the cash soybeans held on-farm starts to move, this uptrend could come to a screeching halt. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.