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British Pound/U.S. Dollar (^GBPUSD)

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British Pound/U.S. Dollar Futures Market News and Commentary

Dollar Index Closes Rallies to 2-week High on Strong U.S. Economic Data

The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday rallied sharply to a new 2-week high and closed the day up +0.55 (+0.56%). June euro-fx futures (E6M9) closed -0.0072 (-0.64%), and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) fell -0.0068 (-0.60%). June yen futures (J6M9) closed down -0.0020 (-0.22%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) rose +0.17 (+0.16%). The dollar index on Friday rallied on solid U.S. economic reports that were hawkish for Fed policy. The U.S. May retail sales report of +0.5% m/m for both the headline and ex-autos reports was close to expectations of +0.6% headline and +0.4% ex-autos. Meanwhile, the U.S. May industrial production report of +0.4% m/m was stronger than expectations of +0.2%. The preliminary-June U.S. consumer sentiment index fell by -2.1 points to 97.9, but that was in line with market expectations and U.S. consumer sentiment remains generally strong. The Chinese yuan on Friday's weakened slightly by -0.1% due to Friday's weak Chinese May industrial production report of +5.0% y/y, which was the weakest report since 2002 and indicated that the Chinese manufacturing sector continues to slow due to the US/Chinese trade war. GBP/USD fell sharply on Friday and closed -0.67% at $1.2589/GBP, just mildly above the late-May 5-1/2 month low of $1.2559/GBP. Boris Johnson is cruising to victory in the Conservative Party leadership race and the markets are concerned about a no-deal Brexit given his vow to take the UK out of the EU by the October 31 deadline even if a no-deal Brexit is required as a last resort. Conservative Party MPs will whittle down the list of candidates from the current list of six to just two candidates with votes next Tuesday through Thursday. The final two candidates will then be voted on by grassroot Conservative Party members and a new Party leader and Prime Minister will take power in the week of July 22. Big Picture Dollar Factors: Bullish factors for the dollar index include (1) the Fed's balance sheet drawdown program through September and the Fed-dot forecast for one more rate hike in 2020 vs near-zero policy rates by the ECB and BOJ, (2) relative strength in the U.S. economy, and (3) the repatriation of U.S. corporate overseas cash under the 2018 tax law. Bearish factors include (1) the recent decline in the 10-year T-note yield to a 1-3/4 year low of 2.052%, which weakens the dollar's interest rate differentials, (2) market expectations of an 80% chance for a rate cut at the July FOMC meeting, (3) trade tensions and Washington political uncertainty, and (4) the wide U.S. budget and current account deficits. Bearish factors for EUR/USD include (1) the ECB's promise to leave interest rates unchanged at least through mid-2020, (2) weak Eurozone economic growth, (3) the slump in the 10-year bund yield to a record low of -0.270%, which undercuts the euro's interest rate differentials, and (4) Brexit risks.

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 11, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
152,966 (+6,671)
92,923 (+10,129)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
33,761 (-8,237)
78,562 (-11,198)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
83,318 (-7,883)
5,250 (+1,891)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
52,772 (+421)
102,493 (-10,271)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
26,505 (-8,317)
32,936 (-6,762)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
140 (+140)
6,814 (unch)

Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1.25592 +0.22%
on 05/31/19
1.28104 -1.74%
on 05/21/19
-0.01248 (-0.98%)
since 05/17/19
1.25592 +0.22%
on 05/31/19
1.33100 -5.43%
on 03/19/19
-0.06989 (-5.26%)
since 03/15/19
1.24296 +1.27%
on 01/03/19
1.33780 -5.91%
on 03/13/19
-0.06897 (-5.19%)
since 06/15/18

Most Recent Stories

More News
Asian shares mixed as investors look ahead to Fed rates

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mixed Monday amid a wait-and-see attitude about the direction of interest rates and the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.

Stocks better bid; Fed and BoE in focus

The trading week started with a mixed risk appetite in Asia. The Hang Seng index gained up to 1.25% after Hong Kongs chief executive Carrie Lam delayed the fiercely disputed extradition law on Saturday....

25000 Crores worth of Loan defaults in PNB! But Markets have already foreseen this!

Punjab National Bank has admitted of defaults worth around 25000 Crores to 1,142 big and small borrowers all over India. But Stock market has already priced in the Impact

Asian shares mostly higher as investors look ahead to Fed

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly higher Monday amid a wait-and-see attitude about the direction of interest rates and the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.

King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies

One of the biggest movers on Friday was the US dollar. In this article we discuss how that affected the rest of the markets.

EURUSD Expects More Weakness On Bear Pressure

EURUSD expects more weakness on bear pressure as we enter a new week. Support comes in at the 1.1150 where a violation will turn risk to the 1.1100 level.

USDCHF Recovery Threats Expected In The New Week

USDCHF recovery threats expected in the new week following its past week gain. Resistance resides at the 1.0000 level.

Stocks post small losses; investors look ahead to Fed

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks ended a choppy week of trading with modest losses Friday as investors look forward to getting more clues about the direction of interest rates.

NVDA : 144.64 (-2.44%)
QCOM : 68.72 (-1.73%)
TXN : 107.31 (-3.48%)
BAC : 28.04 (+0.36%)
GBPUSD Turns Lower On More Bearishness

GBPUSD turns lower on more bearishness following its recent weakness.

US Retail Sales comes in mixed for May, but with surprise positive revisions to April data.

Fed rate cut frenzy trade gets dialed back. Gold, bonds, Eurodollar off highs. USD broadly higher. Pressure mounts for ECB to cut rates too as 5y5y inflation swap forwards trade...

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Sell with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 1.27283
1st Resistance Point 1.26602
Last Price 1.25872
1st Support Level 1.25517
2nd Support Level 1.25113

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52-Week High 1.33780
Fibonacci 61.8% 1.30157
Fibonacci 50% 1.29038
Fibonacci 38.2% 1.27919
Last Price 1.25872
52-Week Low 1.24296

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