Sharp Drop in Monday Soy

After the Sep options either expired or were converted to their corresponding futures position, the September soybean contract dropped a sharp 4.4% - or 70.5c. That tightened the Sep premium to November by 47 cents, but is still 97c. The other front months were also 1.3% to 1.6% lower to start the week. Red Nov beans ended the day priced at $13.62 after a 19 1/4 cent loss. Soymeal futures were more kind to the Sep contract, as it was 30 cents stronger, though the other nearbys were down $0.50 to $1.40/ton. BO futures were also up 16 points in the Sep contract, though down 27 to 44 points in the other nearbys. 

Crop Progress data from NASS showed 91% of soybeans had set pods through week 35. That compares to 92% on average. The weekly update also showed 4% of the crop had begun dropping leaves, trailing the 5-yr average pace by 3% points. Conditions converted to a 351 on the Brugler500 Index, which was 1 point higher than last week. In NE NASS cut conditions an equivalent 13 points on the Brugler500 to 312. Beans in IA converted to a 364 on the Brugler500 Index.  

Indonesia’s palm oil export tax was raised to ~$124/ton from $74/ton as the deputy for food and agriculture raised the CPO reference price to $930.02/ton. Indonesia will also require 11.03m kL of palm-based biodiesel to meet their B30 requirements. The prior allocation was 10.15m kL. 

The weekly Inspections report from USDA had 436,851 MT of soybeans shipped during the week of 8/25. That was down from 686.8k MT last week and compares to 387k MT shipped during the same week last year. 

Production estimates from StatsCan show the canola crop should reach 19.499 MMT, up from 13.8 MMT last year (revised up from their prior 12.6 MMT figure). The trade was looking for StatsCan to report 19.6 MMT. For soybeans, Canada is expected to harvest 6.4 MMT, up from 6.27 MMT last year, and above the 6.2 average trade guess. 

Sep 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.34 3/4, down 70 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $14.69 3/8, down 23 5/8 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.37 3/4, down 23 1/2 cents,

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.43, down 22 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash   was $13.86 1/2, down 23 1/4 cents,