Pre-Markets Hopeful for a Near-Term Solution on Iran

Monday, March 23rd, 2026

After weeks of tumbling markets as the “Wall of Worry” grew taller amid the war on Iran, especially with the closing-off of the Strait of Hormuz immediately affecting gasoline prices here at home, pre-market futures have blossomed on new hopefulness for the region.

President Trump said early this morning that he is in “intense talks” with Iranian officials, which has so far gone “very good.” Apparently, he has called off strikes on the oil-rich nation, and has gone so far as to say that Iran has “changed its regime.” The Dow shot up +1200 points on this sentiment, and the small-cap Russell 2000 shot up more than +4%.

The impact on oil prices was again immediate, falling roughly -5% to roughly $98 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI and $105/bbl on Brent. Oil drillers like Occidental Petroleum OXY gained, as have fuel-consuming travel companies like Delta Airlines DAL and Carnival Cruises CCL, up +3% and +4%, respectively. Fold-in pent-up demand after weeks of selling off, and it’s easy to understand taking a spark of good news and attempting to ignite the markets with it.

Reuters reports this morning, however, that no such talks have taken place between Iranian officials and President Trump. Pre-market indexes reversed course, subtracting more than half their gains to around +500 on the Dow, but have been inching back up in the minutes since then. Again, the positive sentiment seems to have the upper hand in early trading, but literally anything can happen from here.
 

What to Expect from the Market This Week

After today’s open, we’ll get a delayed Construction Spending report from January. Expectations are that activity in this space has cooled somewhat to +0.1% from +0.3%. However, with this peek so far into the rear view, it’s tough to see how this news would influence markets on a day like this.

Tuesday, we’ll see U.S. Productivity numbers for Q4 of last year, again with coolness in the forecast: +1.8% versus +2.8%. S&P flash Services and Manufacturing PMI are also out tomorrow, both measures expecting to keep somewhat above the 50 threshold between growth and loss.

Imports/Exports will be reported mid-week for February, Weekly Jobless Claims will again come out Thursday morning, and Consumer Sentiment arrives on Friday. It’s a relatively slow week for economic reports — and earnings, for that matter — but that changes next week when we get a new “Jobs Week.”

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