Gold & SP 500 Futures Analysis 3/21/26

The charts are key to this analysis

GOLD

(GCJ26) 

From the last update,

Even the late January plunge held 38.2% back to the 5/15/25 low at 4735.00, this was also 23.6% back to the 10/6/23 low. It did trade well below this level and had one close below it (we always want to see 2 to confirm the violation) and the next day was right back above it. On the rally from there it held 38.2% on 2/17/26 at 4881.00, which was also a major Gann square and the rally from there hit 78.6% back to the ATH at 5374.00. As we mention in the SP 500 update this is where a lot of Bull markets can end. The setback from 5374.00 has hit 38.2% back to the 2/2/26 low at 5052.00 and this will be the key level for the week. 

Use 5052.00 as the swing point for the week.

 Below it, a failure to hold 5052.00 will turn the short term trend negative and the short term target is 61.8% of the same move at 4815.00. The longer term target is 78.6% the other way at 4644.00 per the ONE44 78.6% rule. There is also the 4649.00 major Gann square for added support.

The huge break this week came from the failure to make a new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement on 3/2/06, ONE44 Analytics 78.6% Rule,

Any market that hits 78.6% should go 78.6% back the other way. This is also where a lot of Bull markets end and start.

It accelerated after it took out the 5052.00 (38.2%) swing point. The move down hit the longer term target of 78.6% at 4644.00 and completed the 78.6% (5374.00) to 4644.00 per the ONE44 78.6% rule. It has two closes below it and this will be the swing point for the week.

Use 4644.00 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, provided it can get right back above 4644.00 the longer term target will be 78.6% the other way  at 5235.00, per the ONE44 78.6% rule again. The short term target area is 38.2% back to the 3/2/26 high at 4847.00 and the 4881.00 major Gann square. A failure to get above this level is a very negative sign and a new low can quickly follow. When and if the 2/2/26 low is taken out we will be retracing back to the ATH on 1/29/26 high to get the new 38.2% & 78.6% levels.

Below it, The short term target is the 4303.00 major Gann square. The long term target is also the long term swing point at 4119.00, this is 38.2% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square. A failure to hold this area will give us a long term target of 61.8% of the same move at 3160.00, which is also a major Gann square. Before then there are plenty of major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below, those are on the chart.

We have over 45 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

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S&P 500 Futures

(ESM26) 

From the last update,

The first setback from the 2/11/26 high hit 78.6% the other way on 2/17/26 at 6808.00 and that sent it 78.6% the other way again on 2/25/26 at 6966.00. We will now see if the break from 6966.00 (78.6%) will be the end of the Bull run for now. Friday's close was just below the 6752.00 major Gann square and this will be the key level for the week.

Use 6752.00 as the swing point for the week.

Below it, the short term target area is 6636.00 to 6594.00, this is 78.6% back to the 11/21/25 low, the 200 day average (6608.00) and the 6594.00 major Gann square. The longer term target is 23.6% back to the 2025 low at 6520.00. With...

The initial move down on 3/9/26 sent the market right into the short term target area of 6636.00 to 6594.00, this is 78.6% back to the 11/21/25 low, the 200 day average (6608.00) and the 6594.00 major Gann square, what followed was a massive 250 point rally in a day and a half. That rally fell short of 61.8% at 6865.00 and then went right back into the short term target area. Friday's low was $3 short of the longer term target at 6520.00 and this will be the key level for the week. The late Friday rally from this area was $65, however with the volatility that the market has been having it could still trade well below and close above it to say the level held. With the current low it will need to get back above the 200 day average at 6647.00 to give the first indication this make is done going down for now. The second would be taking out the 38.2% retracement back to the ATH.

Use 6520.00 as the swing point for the week. 

Above it, 6520.00 is a key longer term 23.6% retracement and the long term target from it is a new ATH. The short term target area is 38.2% back to the 1/28/26 high at 6720.00 and the 6752.00 major Gann square, a failure to get above this area after holding a long term 23.6% retracement would be a negative sign and a new low can quickly follow regardless of the long term target. The longer term target area is the 6906.00 major Gann square and 78.6% of the same move at 6932.00. 

Below it, The short term target is 6220.00, this is 38.2% back to the 4/7/25 low and 23.6% back to the 2022 low, just above it the 6290.00 major Gann square. If the market takes this area out, the long term target is 5706.00, this 61.8% back to the 4/7/25 low, a major Gann square and 38.2% back to the 2022 low. Before then there are plenty of major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below on the chart.

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