Do Mass Shooting Incidents Catapult Firearms Sales?

After the acutely raw emotions stemming from the elementary school shooting in Uvalde, Texas gave way to searing anger at pro-gun policymakers, the national discourse has once again focused on the Second Amendment. Though it appears The Founding Fathers desired providing individual households the right to protect themselves, no one could have imagined back then the sheer destructive capacity that modern firearms readily deploy.

One of the complexities of the Uvalde massacre is that the gunman legally purchased the weapons he used to gun down innocent children and teachers. Moreover, several firearms-related crimes – both prior to and following Uvalde – involved legal transactions. Presumably, then, gun control measures designed to restrict legitimate purchases could potentially cut down on the tragic statistics.

However, nothing in the firearms debate is ever cut and dried. As The Washington Post stated in 2018, there are more guns than people in the U.S., translating to extraordinary demand for weaponry. And according to The Firearm Industry Trade Association, the sporting arms and ammunition industry directly employs 169,523 people for a total economic impact of $28.4 billion.

Strictly limiting or outright eliminating gun ownership in the U.S. is therefore likely to meet fierce resistance. Not only that, social observers have long noted that mass shootings tend to inspire increased gun sales. But just how accurate is this assumption?

Sobering Data Confirms the Power of Cynicism

Psychologically and politically, the motivation for buying firearms – even if one is not inclined to such purchases – is understandable following a severe mass-shooting incident. For one thing, such horrific crimes point to the growing mental health crisis in this country and the rising inability for law enforcement officers to respond immediately to every violent incident. Therefore, firearms provide at least a sense of security.

Second, the fear of losing access to guns is another powerful catalyst. Again, you might not care for weapons in any other context. But in an environment of escalating violence, people reason it’s better to have a gun than to relinquish the right of ownership indefinitely.

As it turns out, a strong correlation exists between annual firearms purchases and the total number of fatalities from mass shootings every year.

The correlation coefficient between the aforementioned data points between 2000 and 2019 is 83.6%, a staggeringly strong direct relationship. In other words, as mass-shooting fatalities increase, so too do gun sales. As well, the dynamic works in the opposite direction, with fewer fatalities resulting in a deceleration of sales.

For instance, during the Obama administration, gun sales significantly spiked from 2011 to 2012, as did gun-related fatalities. Interestingly, despite 2013 being a relatively slow year for fatalities nevertheless saw a surge in firearms sales amid the aftermath of the December 2012 Sandy Hook shooting. But when fatalities declined from 2013 to 2014, so too did gun sales.

A Possibly Insurmountable Challenge

Though the relationship between gun violence and gun sales seems patently obvious from the above data, the COVID-19 pandemic threw this relationship for a loop. Because of shelter-in-place mandates, fewer opportunities for violence existed. But at the same time, firearms sales skyrocketed, leading to a breakage of the aforementioned correlation.

Indeed, if you measure the correlation coefficient from 2000 through 2021, the ratio slips 50.7%. Even so, that’s still a decently significant relationship. It tells you that even under extraordinary circumstances such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans gravitate strongly to the firearm as a means for protection.

Thus, on that note alone, any measures to limit access to firearms will be incredibly problematic. For instance, according to a NextShark report, a “study conducted by the University of Michigan and Eastern Michigan University found that Asian Americans who experienced instances of racism during the rise of the COVID-19 pandemic were more likely to purchase firearms for self-defense.”

Very few (if any) policymakers have the political and social capital to deny historically marginalized communities the protection they need. But even taking that issue aside, the financial implications are overwhelming. Evidence indicates that the total economic impact of the firearms industry – including suppliers and secondary partners – amounts to over $70.5 billion.

Heading into a possible recession, cutting American jobs is not a palatable move.

Must Come From Within

So, is there an answer to the tragically vexing firearms problem in this country? There is but the solution must come from within society’s ranks – not by forced governmental mandates.

Mainly, investors can ask serious questions about where their money is being distributed. If enough people object to directly and indirectly financing or otherwise benefitting the firearms industry, the sector will lose its oxygen. At that point, political action will be easier to push through.

However, the tricky matter is that many people – indeed most people – own and use firearms for perfectly legitimate reasons. And in areas and communities which receive less-than-adequate law enforcement coverage, a personal firearm may be the only leveling platform against worryingly rising violence.

In short, do mass shootings catapult firearms sales? The data indicates yes. However, understanding the reasons why is crucial to formulating and delivering a workable solution.