“Shootin’ The Bull”
by Christopher B Swift
3/18/2026
Live Cattle:
Futures traders were able to eke out a positive close on what appeared to be mounting input costs and questionable consumer demand. Due to these culminating factors, and no changes in cattle supplies, cattlemen are believed going to be bullish. To help moderate some of this, I recommend to have an offsetting derivative to manage the significance of input costs. As well, attempt to accomplish such while basis is narrow and prices are higher.
Feeder Cattle:
A much narrower trading range today with only a slightly lower close. Cattlemen remain bullish. I am skeptical, simply due to outside market price action causing significant factors to have to be overcome in the return of input costs. Price action the past two trading days narrowed basis significantly as well as raised the price of inventory in the future. I continue to recommend taking action while conditions are far more favorable than just a few days ago.
Corn:
Grains and oilseeds were higher as energy was higher. I anticipate grains to continue higher with the rise in energy prices. The March 31 planting intentions report is not anticipated to show much change from prior expectations. About 180 million acres of beans and corn at expected with beans the larger share over corn. The Mississippi River Delta is dry when viewing the Drought Monitor. Although the world appears swimming in beans and corn, a crop failure somewhere could change the dynamics of grains as quickly as did the energy market.
Energy:
Energy roared higher today. Specifically, the diesel fuel, with new contract highs made and now trading above $4.00. Gasoline continues to creep higher, in behind the diesel fuel, with crude bringing up the rear. I anticipate higher oil prices as military actions are anticipated to either cease, and leave the region in turmoil, or put boots on the ground, to help overthrow the regime. Either way, the longer this military action drags on, the more time Iran has to react, and or, further division of countries in support or against US actions. My opinion alone is that many producers, and consumers alike, are ignoring, mitigating, or attempting to moderate the higher fuel price that has not had much time to impact consumer spending or business decisions. As I filled up on Tuesday, I paid $1.00 more than last week, and had $21.00 less in my wallet. That is gasoline, with diesel fuel up 35% more than gasoline in the same time frame. Diesel has risen 101% and gasoline 66% from the first of the year. Note that not all of these gains have been reflected in retail prices or wholesale to the producer in farm fuel.
Bonds:
Bonds were lower today because inflation continues to soar. Not only in commodities, but the PPI was higher today when expected lower. The Fed has been pumping money into the system for stimulation and the President crying to have rates lower to further throw gasoline on the fire to keep it burning so hot, no one dares to try to stop it. All of the above, and cattle producers continue to pile on risk. This might be something to think about overnight.
“This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.
