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Recent Friday trade sessions haven’t been good for the cattle markets and this Friday’s trade was no different. Cattle struggled on Friday closing lower on the session after starting the day with a higher push. Feeders also attempted an early rally that faltered and took price down to support. It was able to settle slightly higher on the day but was below the opening price. The markets continue to be influenced by the movements in the Equity and Crude Oil markets. The opening rally was all about Crude in negative territory and the Equity markets at their session highs. The markets also had to contend with the negative sentiment looming from the upcoming strike at the JBS plant in Greeley Colorado. The early rally saw April Live Cattle top off at 232.55, just below resistance at 232.75. The low penetrated support at 230.425 before settling just above it at 230.90. April Feeder Cattle rallied to 346.70, just above resistance at the 100-DMA on the continuous chart at 346.525. The breakdown took price to 343.525 which is just past support at the rising 200-DMA now at 342.25. Settlement was a couple of ticks above Thursday’s settlement at 343.10. The past 3-days saw Feeders trade between these important long-term moving averages. A settlement above or below these two averages could determine the next directional move for Feeder Cattle. That being said, it is the impact of the war with Iran that is affecting the price action as the fear is consumer confidence which has dipped lower as the war progresses will continue to erode with gas prices rising due to the fear, we can’t move crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. This is impacting a host of other products and we will see a jump in inflation in the short-run which along with rising beef prices as the packer has finally tipped the scales in their favor with the official strike looming on Monday. The rising cutout and the fall of cattle prices has put them back in the black, in my opinion and they slightly increased slaughter this week as a result. Many analysts were crying we would see slaughter dip to 515,000 for the week. We had 525,000 estimated to be slaughtered this week. The looming strike still has two potential days of negotiating if both sides are serious about resolving their issues without a strike. I think JBS has the stronger hand as they don’t seem to mind that the plant could shut down. They have capacity elsewhere and cattle prices has sunk since the workers have called for a strike. How much cash reserves do the union have to keep a strike going before its members feel the pain of not working? Would the President intervene and force the employees back to work while the government gets involved in the negotiations? He likely will if the strike persists while he is fighting a war that has already pressured prices, in my opinion. If Feeder Cattle can’t hold settlement, it could revisit support at the rising 200-DMA. A breakdown below here could see price test support at 341.05 and then move towards support at 337.575. If Feeder cattle can hold settlement, it could see price test resistance at 344.675. Resistance then comes in at the 100-DMA. If Live Cattle can hold settlement, it could test resistance at 232.75. Resistance then comes in at the declining 8-DMA now at 233.325 and the declining 13-DMA now at 234.15. Resistance then comes in at 235.625. A failure below the low could see price test support at the rising 200-DMA now at 229.10. Support then comes in at 226.60.
The Feeder Cattle Index released today decreased and is at 358.35 as of 03/12/2026 settlement.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 0.83 to 397.92 and select increased 0.72 to 391.54. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 6.38 and the load count was 53.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 86,000, which is below last week’s 88,000 and last year’s 99,113. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 17,000, which is above last week’s zero and last year’s 4,229. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 525,000, which is above last week’s 521,000 and below last year’s 586,280.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate to good demand in Kansas. There have been a few live purchases from 233.00-235.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test in Kansas was Wednesday at 235.00. Negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on light demand in all other major feeing regions. The last established market test in the Texas Panhandle was last week with live purchases at mostly 240.00. The last established market test in Nebraska was Wednesday with live purchases at mostly 235.00 and dressed purchases at mostly 372.00. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was Wednesday with live purchases from 233.00-235.00, mostly 235.00, and dressed purchases at 372.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 233.00 – 236.00 and from 372.00 – 375.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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