The Grain Rally Marches On!

Energy prices lead the way higher, outside markets under pressure
(Reuters) – Crude oil benchmarks rose more than $4 on Tuesday, soaring for a third session as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran widens, disrupting fuel shipments and heightening fears of further Middle East oil and gas supply disruption.
The U.S. and Israeli air war against Iran has widened since Israel’s first attacks on Saturday, with Israel attacking Lebanon and Iran responding with strikes against energy infrastructure in Gulf countries and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically passes.

Corn

Technicals (May)
Grain markets are moving higher this morning along side the energy complex, with oil futures posting a new high for the move, reaching the highest price since June. Yesterday’s reversal lower may have not felt great for the Bulls, but there wasn’t any technical damage done as Friday’s lows held, and more significant support (439 3/4-441 3/4) remained just below that. Prices are knocking on the door of yesterday’s high and our resistance pocket, 453-454 1/2. If the Bulls can clear this hurdle, it would open the door for another leg higher with 460-461 being the next objective. Last week in our interview with AgriTalk we talked about money flow across commodities being an under represented catalyst as a potential tailwind for grains. Historically this is a time of year where we start to see ranges and volatility expand, throw in volatility and range expansion across commodities as a whole and it starts to amplify it.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 453-454 1/2****, 460-461***
Pivot: 447-448 1/4
Support: 439 3/4-441 3/4****

Headlines
(Reuters)

Planting of Brazil’s second corn crop in the key center-south region reached 66% of the estimated area, compared with 80% a year earlier, AgRural said.

The pace is the slowest since 2022, it noted, as rainfall and delays in the soy harvest hinder fieldwork in several areas.

The first-corn harvest hit 36%, below the 46% seen a year earlier.

Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of 29,079 Futures contracts. Broken down, that was 18,994 of short covering and 10,085 of new longs. This is the smallest net short position since January 6th, 12,830.

Read the full article with charts here: The Grain Rally Marches On! - Blue Line Futures

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