U.S. and European Futures Signal Cautious Optimism as Nvidia Earnings and Tariffs Drive Market Direction

Where Are Markets Today?

The US and European futures signal a cautiously optimistic opening for the markets today, with the Dow futures slightly higher, S&P CFD  futures slightly in the green, while Nasdaq 100 futures showing slightly stronger gains ahead of the highly anticipated earnings release from Nvidia. The European futures are also steady to slightly higher in line with the stabilizing risk sentiment after Tuesday's rally in US equities. The Wall Street markets closed strongly higher in the last session, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 0.8%, while the Nasdaq was up by about 1% and the Dow rising by nearly 370 points. The markets benefited from easing concerns over AI disruption in the software and cybersecurity space, while a nearly 9% rise in AMD shares after announcing a multi-year AI deal with Meta helped boost sentiment in the semiconductor space.

Two key factors are driving the current futures positioning. The first is that Nvidia earnings are considered an important catalyst for both US and European markets due to the company’s position in AI infrastructure spending and hyperscaler capital expenditures. Investors are currently assessing technology valuations after weeks of volatile movements in the markets. Strong earnings guidance from Nvidia could fuel further upside in both US and European markets. The second factor is that the imposition of a 10% global tariff and the renewed trade rhetoric are acting to reduce risk appetite in the markets. Although the markets initially digested the announcement of the tariffs without any major impact, the overall implications of the tariffs are still being evaluated.

The relief rallies in software and cyber securities are also helping to stabilize the futures markets. The rallies are due to the increasing recognition that AI spending could actually enhance rather than disrupt incumbent business models. The European markets are also benefiting from the spillover of the stabilization in US technology markets but are also vulnerable to the impact of tariffs and currency movements.

From our perspective at Zaye Capital Markets, we believe that the markets are currently risk-on but highly dependent on catalysts. The futures markets are currently benefiting from earnings anticipation and sector-specific relief but are also vulnerable to the impact of tariffs policy, geopolitical risks, and valuation risks.

Major Index Performance as of Wednesday, 25 Feb 2026

• NASDAQ: Trading near 22,864, up +1.0%, with a tech rebound in select names driving the Nasdaq.
• S&P 500: Trading near 6,890, up +0.8%, with a moderate improvement in breadth.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Trading near 49,175, up +0.8%, with industrial and defensives leading the Dow.
• Russell 2000: Trading near 2,653, up +1.2%, with a modest increase in small caps participating in the rally.

The Magnificent Seven and the S&P 500

The Magnificent Seven, comprising Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla, are again the key drivers for the markets. While AI trends are helping the narratives for $META, $NVDA, and $MSFT, valuation compression and guidance remain concerns for these names and are impacting the mega-cap space in general. This group's influence on the markets remains a concern for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as without broader sector support, upside is still dependent on these names stabilizing