Crude Jumps as Ceasefire With Iran Continues to Unravel

Daily Update:

**Analysis and levels rolled to December futures 

December crude oil futures rallied $2.34 yesterday to settle at 80.83 as the loosely held ceasefire with Iran accelerated its unraveling from last week.

Over the weekend, hostilities restarted in Lebanon while Iran continued to strike tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The White House was aggressive in its responses on Monday, threatening to strike Oman and mentioning the Strait of Hormuz becoming a U.S. territory.

The Russia - Ukraine situation also heated up over the weekend into Monday, as Ukraine successfully launched one of its biggest drone strikes to date deep within Russian soil.

Post-settlement, WTI futures continued their rally, making a new intraday high at 81.27 close to 5 p.m. CST. The overnight trade was fairly muted as tight support held near the exchange settlement of 80.83 while an overnight high was made at 81.64.

This morning, news flow continues to trend bullish as another tanker was struck while exiting the Strait, and the White House said they are "not interested" in making a deal with Iran.

Risk remains skewed to the upside based on current fundamentals and is firmly skewed to the upside when factoring in geopolitical risk premia.

Our intraday trading range is between 82.06* on the upside and 79.19* on the downside, with an intraday pivot & point of balance at 81.00*** which is a major three star level on our longer-term technical analysis as well.

Key Technical Levels:

Resistance: 82.00-82:12***; 83.72***; 85.32-85.63*** 

Pivot & Point of Balance: 81.00***; 77.07-76.53*** (longer-term)

Support: 80.31***; 78.84-78.64***    

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Intraday Chart (30 mins):

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