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April Lean Hogs opened lower, tested support at 93.50 as it made its low at 93.45 then raced to the session high at 94.575, stopping its rally just shy of resistance at the declining 13-DMA now at 94.65. It made its way lower the rest of the session, settling near the low at 93.70. The rally also stalled after testing resistance at the 38.2% retracement level at 94.45 from the February 4th high at 99.80 to the February 13th low at 91.125. It formed a Shooting Star candlestick which is a bearish candle after a bearish candle on Friday, in my opinion. This confluence of resistance could be tough for Hogs to overcome if it trades below the Monday low on Tuesday. The cash market has once again stabilized after showing weakness in early February. This is a positive for the market and could limit downside in futures. Futures are still trading above the cash index but the strengthening cash could support bullish traders if it can continue to move higher. Demand for pork has been strong as exports and the US consumer have combined to keep prices from collapsing as production has soared due to heavier weights and larger slaughter numbers than expected. We still have the potential for a dip into March as seasonal demand wavers. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a re-test of resistance at the 13-DMA. Resistance then comes in at 95.30 and the 50% retracement and 95.45. A failure from the low could see price test support at the declining 8-DMA now at 92.875. Support then comes in at 92.375.
The Pork Cutout Index ticked higher and is at 96.07 as of 02/20/2026.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 87.95 as of 02/19/2026.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 489,000, which is above last week’s 461,000 and last year’s 488,340.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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