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The cattle markets broke down on Friday in front of the Cattle Inventory report and weakening outside markets. This was in spite of surging cattle prices as fat cash traded as high as 241.00 on a live basis, dressed at 378.50 and the Feeder Cattle index surging to a new recent high at 370.69. April Live Cattle did surge early on the news of the strength in cash prices, reaching a new high for the recent up move at 239.75. March Feeder Cattle, however, never followed along with cattle, showing weakness right from the get go and only managing a weak high from the open at 366.00 and then crashing which in my opinion took the fat market with it as the deferred fats fell and the fronts followed suit. This in spite of a surge in the index and from customers were telling me a solid feeder auction market at the events they were at. No one was paying attention to futures. Producers were buying cattle and the packer was still buying cattle at 375 and 240.00 as the market broke down. It was also month end and maybe there was some profit taking and the cattle markets have been in an uptrend this month. Once again, a Friday break down has created bearish candle formations in these markets. An Evening Star candle formation in Feeders and an outside day down in the fats. The recent previous bearish formations have been negated as prices couldn’t follow-through with the negativity of these formations. The cattle break down took price to 235.90 for April Live Cattle and 358.325 for March Feeders. Both markets bounced off their lows to settle at 236.80 and 360.275 respectively. There is also talk that the border could open by early spring as the Mexicans are producing more sterile flies that could stem the northward movement of the fly. No word from the USDA. More rumors. How are they producing these flies when all they keep saying is the facility they are refurbishing won’t be ready until late July? I hope they do open the border sooner rather than later. This will take the rumor mill off the table and will give the fledging Mexican feedlot industry some competition, which could be good for the Mexican producer, which I am being told are being taken advantage of by cattle buyers in Mexico. The cattle that come in from Mexico will likely be limited slowly open the border and if the places that are buying cattle from the rancher now want to continue, they will provide better pricing, and the US might not see as many cattle come in from that country as bears expect. We’ll see! If April Live Cattle can hold settlement, we could see price test resistance at 238.125. The Friday high is next and then 242.075. A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 232.75. Support then comes in at the 100-DMA now at 231.25. If Feeder cattle can hold settlement, it could see price test resistance at 363.00. Resistance then comes in at 365.675. A breakdown from the low could see price re-test support at 354.55. Support then comes in at 350.20. The Cattle Inventory summary is below.
The Feeder Cattle Index surged and is at 370.69 as of 01/29/2026.
Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts decreased 2.10 to 365.56 and select increased 1.22 to 361.94. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 3.62 and the load count was 95.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 93,000, which is above last week’s 84,000 and below last year’s 115,502. Saturday slaughter s expected to be 2,000, which is below last week’s 4,000 and last year’s 3,140. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 531,000, which is below last week’s 535,000 and last year’s 601,785.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday; negotiated cash trade has been moderate to active on good demand in all feeding regions. In the Texas Panhandle, live purchases have been 4.00-6.00 higher at 240.00 when compared to last week. Compared to last week in Kansas, live purchases have been 4.00-7.00 higher from 238.00-240.00, mostly 240.00. Compared to last week in Nebraska, live purchases have been 4.00-6.00 higher at mostly 240.00 and dressed purchases have been 5.00-8.00 higher from 375.00-378.00. When compared to last week in the Western Cornbelt, live purchases have been 5.00 higher from 238.00-240.50, mostly 240.00, and dressed purchases have been 8.00-10.00 higher from 375.00-378.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 234.00 – 241.00 and from 368.00 – 378.50 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
January 1 Cattle Inventory Down Slightly
All cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2026 totaled 86.2 million head, slightly below the 86.5 million head on January 1, 2025.
All cows and heifers that have calved, at 37.2 million head, were slightly below the 37.3 million head on January 1, 2025. Beef cows, at 27.6 million head, were down 1 percent from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.57 million head, were up 2 percent from the previous year.
All heifers 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2026 totaled 18.0 million head, 1 percent below the 18.1 million head on January 1, 2025. Beef replacement heifers, at 4.71 million head, were up 1 percent from a year ago. Milk replacement heifers, at 3.90 million head, were down slightly from the previous year. Other heifers, at 9.40 million head, were 2 percent below a year earlier.
Steers weighing 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2026 totaled 15.6 million head, down 1 percent from January 1, 2025.
Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2026 totaled 2.01 million head, up slightly from January 1, 2025.
Calves under 500 pounds as of January 1, 2026 totaled 13.3 million head, down slightly from January 1, 2025.
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 13.8 million head on January 1, 2026. The inventory is down 3 percent from the January 1, 2025 total of 14.3 million head. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 82.7 percent of the total cattle on feed on January 1, 2026, up slightly from the previous year. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots), at 24.5 million head, was 1 percent above January 1, 2025.
Calf Crop Down 2 Percent
The 2025 calf crop in the United States was estimated at 32.9 million head, down 2 percent from the previous year's calf crop. Calves born during the first half of 2025 were estimated at 24.2 million head, down 2 percent from the first half of 2024. Calves born during the second half of 2025 were estimated at 8.70 million head, 26 percent of the total 2025 calf crop.
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Ben DiCostanzo
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Walsh Trading, Inc.
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