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Amazon.com (AMZN) will report Q4 2025 earnings on February 5th in an unusual position for the tech titan.
Despite the S&P 500 gaining over 17% in 2025, Amazon shares have been essentially flat year-over-year, trading around the same $235 level they occupied last December.
This stagnant performance could signal weakness, but zooming out reveals a more constructive story. Amazon has beaten earnings expectations in each of the past four quarters by margins ranging from 17.8% to 26.3%, and continues to enjoy overwhelming analyst support.
Traders looking to capitalize on Amazon's characteristically volatile earnings moves can utilize Direxion's Daily AMZN Bull 2X Shares (AMZU) and Bear 1X Shares (AMZD) leveraged ETFs as tactical tools to trade the stock's explosive swings without traditional margin requirements.
Amazon Q4 2025 Earnings Expectations
Wall Street expects Amazon to report earnings of $1.97 per share for Q4, representing modest 5.9% growth from $1.86 in the year-ago quarter. For full fiscal 2025, analysts project $7.17 per share, up 29.7% from $5.53 in fiscal 2024. The real focus centers on fiscal 2026, where estimates call for $7.87 per share, representing 9.8% growth that would validate Amazon's massive AWS infrastructure investments and retail efficiency initiatives.
Amazon's recent earnings track record has been exceptional. The company beat Wall Street expectations in each of the past four quarters, with Q3 delivering $1.95 versus the $1.58 estimate, a 23.4% surprise.
Previous quarters showed similar beats, with the company consistently crushing expectations on both revenue and profitability metrics. This consistent outperformance has kept analyst sentiment firmly bullish even as the stock has frustrated investors with months of sideways action.
AWS Momentum and Range-Bound Setup
The market's confidence in Amazon centers increasingly on Amazon Web Services. AWS continues to dominate the cloud infrastructure market, and the narrative around AI-related spending has shifted from headwind to tailwind.
What was once framed as concerning capital expenditure is now viewed as strategic positioning for the next wave of cloud computing demand. Evercore ISI recently named Amazon its top large-cap internet pick heading into 2026, citing AWS growth rates, Amazon's competitive positioning, and the improving AI narrative.
However, Wall Street's "Strong Buy" consensus with a 4.84 rating across 57 analysts reflects confidence that remains unshaken by the flat stock performance.
Trading AMZN Earnings With Direxion's Leveraged Single-Stock ETFs
Amazon's combination of strong fundamentals, improving AWS narrative, and months of consolidation creates ideal conditions for leveraged instruments. With shares having spent the better part of a year digesting gains, anticipated February 5 earnings could determine whether the range-bound action was a warning sign or simply an extended pause before the next leg higher.
Bullish Trade: AMZU
The Direxion Daily AMZN Bull 2X Shares (AMZU) seeks 200%, before fees and expenses, of Amazon's daily performance through financial instruments.
- Targets 200% of AMZN's daily performance
- When Amazon rises 1%, AMZU aims for a 2% gain (before fees)
- When Amazon falls 1%, AMZU typically drops 2% (before fees)
- Suitable for traders expecting Q4 beats, strong fiscal 2026 guidance, or belief that AWS momentum and retail efficiency will drive positive reaction
- Launched September 7, 2022, with established trading history
- Average daily volume: 2,168,000 shares
- Currently trading around $36.95, designed for traders betting the extended consolidation sets up a breakout move
Bearish Hedge: AMZD
The Direxion Daily AMZN Bear 1X Shares (AMZD) provides inverse exposure to Amazon. Note that AMZD seeks -100% (1X inverse), before fees and expense, not -200%, making it less aggressive than some other inverse products.
- Delivers inverse (-1X) daily performance versus AMZN
- When Amazon drops 1%, AMZD aims for a 1% gain (before fees)
- When Amazon rises 1%, AMZD typically falls 1% (before fees)
- Valuable for traders concerned about guidance disappointment, competitive pressures in retail, or belief that flat year-over-year performance signals underlying weakness
- Allows portfolio hedging without short-selling* restrictions in retirement accounts
- Average daily volume: 7,222,000 shares (significantly higher than the bull fund, indicating strong hedging demand)
- Provides defined-risk bearish exposure for traders worried the failed November breakout signals exhaustion
Both AMZU and AMZD reset their exposure daily and are designed for short-term trading rather than buy-and-hold positions. The funds will lose money if Amazon's performance is flat over extended periods, and compounding effects mean multi-day returns will differ, sometimes significantly, from simple multiples of Amazon's performance.
Amazon enters the anticipated February 5 earnings in a coiling pattern. Strong fundamentals, consistent earnings beats, improving AWS momentum, and overwhelming analyst support position the company for potentially explosive movement.
Yet with shares flat year-over-year despite market gains, any disappointment could trigger profit-taking from frustrated longs.
These leveraged and inverse ETFs provide traders with powerful tools to express conviction on whether Amazon's consolidation resolves to the upside or finally breaks down.
Investing in leveraged and inverse ETFs involves significant risk. These products are designed for short-term trading and should not be expected to track the underlying stock's performance over periods longer than a single day.
*Short selling: Short-selling is a trading strategy where investors borrow shares and sell them, hoping the stock price will fall.
To learn more about all Direxion's Single Stock Leveraged and Inverse ETFS, Click Here
The Funds do not seek to achieve their stated investment objective for a period of time different than a trading day. Investing in a Direxion Shares ETF may be more volatile than investing in broadly diversified funds. The use of leverage by the Fund increases the risk to the Fund. The Direxion Shares ETFs are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by sophisticated investors who understand leverage risk and the consequences of seeking daily leveraged investment results and intend to actively monitor and manage their investment.
Investing in the funds involves a high degree of risk. Unlike traditional ETFs, or even other leveraged and/or inverse ETFs, these leveraged and/or inverse single-stock ETFs track the price of a single stock rather than an index, eliminating the benefits of diversification. Leveraged and inverse ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying stock’s performance over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. The Funds will lose money if the underlying stock’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Bull Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance increases, and the Bear Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance decreases, over a period longer than a single day. Investing in the Funds is not equivalent to investing directly in AMZN.
An investor should carefully consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Direxion Shares. To obtain a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit our website at direxion.com. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.
Amazon.com, Inc. Investing Risk — Amazon.com, Inc. faces risks associated with intense competition across different industries, including physical, e-commerce omni channel retail, e-commerce services, web and infrastructure computing services, electronic devices, digital content, advertising, grocery, and transportation and logistics services; the expansion into new products, services, technologies and geographic regions; its international activities; the variability in the demand for its products and services; fraudulent and unlawful activities of sellers; intellectual property rights; successfully optimizing and operating its fulfilment network and data centers; data loss or other security breaches; maintaining and hiring necessary key management personnel; maintaining good supplier relationships; the success of acquisitions or joint ventures or other investments; its rapidly evolving and expanding business model; and legal, regulatory, tax liability and litigation issues.
Consumer Discretionary Sector Risk — Companies in the consumer discretionary sector are tied closely to the performance of the overall domestic and international economy, including the functioning of the global supply chain, interest rates, competition and consumer confidence.
ALPS Distributors, Inc.
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