Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain

1/8/26

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THE GAPS IN THE CHARTS FOR THE FATS AND FEEDERS BELOW

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     The Livestock Markets were all higher today and looked good going into the close. February'26 Live Cattle were 75 cents higher today and settled at 235.27 ½. Today's high was 235.82 ½ and the 1-month high is 237.45. Today's low was 233.12 ½ and the 1-month low is 225.65. Since 12/8 February'26 Live Cattle are 8.60 higher or almost 4%. The March'26 Feeders gained a couple dollars today and are within striking distance of 1-month high and the 360 level. The March'26 Feeder Cattle were 2.22 ½ higher today and settled at 357.72 ½. Today's high was 358.30 and the 1-month high is 359.40. Today's low was 353.35 and the 1-month low is 327.72 ½. Since 12/8 March'26 Feeder Cattle are 27.30 higher or more than 8%. The Hogs gained more than a dollar today. February'26 Lean Hogs were 1.07 ½ higher today and settled at 85.87 ½. Today's high was 86.35 and the 1-month high is 86.50. Today's low was 84.80 and the 1-month low is 80.65. Since 12/8 February'26 Lean Hogs are 3.47 ½ higher or more than 4%. The Fats and the Feeders both opened higher today, but the market broke after a while, only to bounce off the lows of the day and close near the highs of the day. I still feel the Cattle Market can make a run at the contract highs. The path higher is easier this time as the tracks have already been laid. According to Bloomberg, Brazil is about to begin a cycle of tight supply in the Cattle Market. They have reported that the price for calves is increasing in Brazil, as Heifers are being retained to rebuild the herds. Yesterday, I saw a second source that stated Brazil's beef production is expected to be down 2% in 2026. This, along with the tight cattle numbers domestically makes me think there could be another run higher in both the Fats and the Feeders. I feel the next move higher could be to fill the remaining gaps above. There is still one gap yet to be filled in the Fats and the Feeders, and they both sit just below the contract highs. For the Gap to be filled in the February'26 Live Cattle it needs to trade 249.55. That price is 14.27 ½ higher from today's settlement price, and just 62 ½ cents below the contract high of 250.17 ½. In the March'26 Feeders the gap would be filled if 376.70 was traded. That price is 18.97 ½ higher from today's settlement price, and just 1.90 below the contract high of 378.60. We will soon see if the Market can rally that high again, and a strong cash market will certainly help. The Feeder Cattle Index continues to climb as well, and it jumped another 4.92 today, up to 368.07. The February'26 Hogs bounced back today, and I still like them trading higher from here. There are charts below, and they show where the Gaps are in the Fats and the Feeders, along with a few new trade examples. It's time to get your account open, so give me a call and I will answer any questions you have. Have a great night. 

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NOW IS THE TIME TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT BEFORE IT IS JULY AGAIN

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BELOW IS A DIRECT LINK TO FILL OUT ACCOUNT PAPERWORK - PLEASE CALL ME IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS.

https://portal2.straitsfinancial.com/Identity/Account/Register?brokerId=978

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Having a Trading or Hedging Account is essential for your business to be successful. Market volatility has increased across all commodities over the last 12 months, and I expect it to continue to increase over the next 12 months as well. Opening an account in the future, will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, you need to be able to manage risk in real time. If you are proactive now, you will have the ability to be reactive when you need to be. You can be Prepared and Patient at the same time. Call me or hit the direct link above.

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Through Walsh Trading I have built the best 5-man team in the business. Give me a call and let me show you how the Pure Hedge Division can help your bottom line. 

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     The Grain Markets were all lower or unchanged today, and once again did not close well. March'26 Soybeans were 5 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1061 ¼. Today's high was 1067 ¾ and the 1-month high is 1106 ¾. Today's low was 1060 ¾ and the 1-month low is 1038. Since 12/8 March'26 Soybeans are 44 ½ cents lower or more then 4%. March'26 Corn closed a little lower today. March'26 Corn was ¾ of a cent lower today and settled at 446. Today's high was 448 and the 1-month high is 453. Today's low was 445 ½ and the 1-month low is 435 ½. Since 12/8 March'26 Corn is 2 ¼ cents higher or fractionally higher. The Wheat did not do much again and settled unchanged on the day. March'26 Wheat was unchanged today and settled at 518. Today's high was 522 ¾ and the 1-month high is 537 ¾. Today's low was 515 ¾ and the 1-month and contract low is 501 ½. Since 12/8 March'26 Wheat is 16 ¾ cents lower or more than 3%. Crude Oil shot higher after the Grains closed today and is currently 2.59 higher on the day in the March'26 Futures. If the Crude Oil can keep this level or higher, it could lite a fire under the Soybean Oil. The Bean Oil looks ready to charge ahead and could leave the rest of the Grains behind for a while. Indonesia, the world's largest producer of Palm Oil, has come out with a new plan to seize 4 or 5 million hectares of private plantations of Palm Oil. This is in addition to the more than 4 million hectares the Indonesia government seized and put under government control last year. Obviously, they must know they have a problem, and there might not be enough to go around. Indonesia also has a mandatory 40% Palm Oil biofuel blend rate and plans to increase that palm oil blend rate to 50% this year. Export taxes on Palm Oil have also increased and are currently 10%. This alone could make all vegetable oils much more expensive, and if they have a possible export ban, then Soybean Oil and Canola Oil could shoot to the moon. More Palm Oil plantation seizures just ahead of a blend rate increase sends the signal that stocks could drop quickly, and they could inevitably be short of what they need. Malaysia also plans on increasing its Palm Oil biofuel blend rate this year, and Brazil is increasing its Soybean Oil Biofuel blend rate this year as well. It is all setting up what could be a dramatic price increase in the vegetable oil markets. The US government is supposed to release their blend rate later this month, and I feel we could see an increase here as well. Today's weekly export sales for Soybean Oil were above the highest estimates, and for the 2025/2026 marketing year sales have reached over 70% of the USDA forecast, and the 5-year average for this time of year is just over 40%. It looks like the buying has begun. Today, May'26 Soybean Oil closed at 49.97 and I feel it could trade into the mid to high 50's, with the September'26 contract month in the 60's. May'26 Soybean Oil Options Expire 4/24/26 (106 Days). Give me a call if you are interested. 

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REASONS WHY I AM STILL BULLISH SOYBEAN OIL - I FEEL RIGHT NOW IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY 

Here is why I like the Soybean Oil. The Palm Oil supply is getting tight, and export controls seem very possible later this year. The Indonesian Government must be worried about their supply, as they seized land in Palm Oil producing regions and placed them under State Owned Control. At the same time, the production and export supplies of Sunflower Oil are expected to decline, as the price continues to climb and make cheaper Soybean Oil more attractive. Sunflower Oil supplies are already tight, as production estimates have decreased throughout Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, which will limit the amount of Sunflower seed crushing, again making the cheaper Soybean Oil more attractive. Biofuel percentages are set to increase in Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia, and I would not be surprised if the Biofuel blend rates were raised domestically as well. Argentina has already sold most of their Soybeans to China, so their crushing will be limited as well. The Russia/Ukraine war has intensified and the Ports in Odesa, and their grain terminals have been hit, along with the railroads and a Soybean shipment at sea. I also learned a Sunflower Oil terminal was bombed as well. all of this puts a tighter squeeze on the vegetable Oil Markets, as demand is already very strong, with Soybean Oil sales almost hitting 50% of the USDA's forecast for 2025-2026. The 5-year average this time of year is under 32%. It all points to what could be a very dramatic price increase in the Soybean Oil Market, along with all the other reasons. I have continued to buy Soybean Oil Future Spreads and Options Spreads, with a new target level of 64.00-66.00. The market breaking this week was another unexpected opportunity, and I took advantage of it, and will continue to do so, with Spreads in the Futures and Options. I have 3-month, 6–month, and 12-month strategies completed, and ready to go. Give me a call if you would like to know more. 

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THE TRADE BELOW WAS STRUCTURED AND SENT OUT YESTERDAY 1/7/26

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THE TRADE BELOW WAS STRUCTURED AND SENT OUT YESTERDAY 1/7/26

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WATCH IF THE NEXT GAP WILL BE FILLED IN THE FEBRUARY'26 LIVE CATTLE @ 249.55 - CONTRACT HIGH IS 250.17 ½ 

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WATCH IF THE NEXT GAP WILL BE FILLED IN THE MARCH'26 FEEDER CATTLE @ 376.70 - CONTRACT HIGH IS 378.60 

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THIS WEEKS WALSH GAMMA TRADER FROM MONDAY 1/5/26 BELOW. 

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If you don't like the customer service or personal attention you are receiving from your broker, you have options, and you don't have to stay there. I can have your new account open in 1-2 days. Call me anytime 312-957-8079 BALLEN@WALSHTRADING.COM   Sign Up Now

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If you would like to open an account, please use this direct link https://portal2.straitsfinancial.com/Identity/Account/Register?brokerId=978

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.

Having a Trading or Hedging Account is essential for your business to be successful. Market volatility has increased across all commodities over the last 12 months, and I expect it to continue to increase over the next 12 months as well. Opening an account in the future, will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, you need to be able to manage risk in real time. If you are proactive now, you will have the ability to be reactive when you need to be. You can be Prepared and Patient at the same time. Call me or hit the direct link above.

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USE THE QR CODE BELOW TO SIGNUP FOR TRADE ALERTS

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If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join my email list   Sign Up Now 

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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canadian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States. 

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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it. 

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Most Recent Walsh Gamma Trader Link - Walsh Gamma Trader

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GOD BLESS AMERICA

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Give me a call if you have any questions.

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Bill Allen

Vice President

Pure Hedge Division 

Direct: 312-957-8079

ballen@walshtrading.com

WALSH TRADING INC.

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