Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain

1/6/26

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THE GAPS IN THE CHARTS FOR THE FATS AND FEEDERS BELOW

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     The Livestock Markets were mixed today, with the Hogs trading a little lower and the Cattle Markets making new highs for the month. February'26 Live Cattle were 75 cents higher today and settled at 236.62 ½. Today's high was 237.45 and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today's low was 235.90 and the 1-month low is 225.65. Since 12/5 February'26 Live Cattle are 9.47 ½ higher or more than 4%. The March'26 Feeders closed several dollars higher and are approaching the 360 level again. The March'26 Feeder Cattle were 3.45 higher today and settled at 359.02 ½. Today's high was 359.40 and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today's low was 357.25 and the 1-month low is 327.25. Since 12/5 March'26 Feeder Cattle are 25.72 ½ higher or more than 7%. The Hogs gave a little back today. February'26 Lean Hogs were 47 ½ cents lower today and settled at 85.67 ½. Today's high was 86.15 and the 1-month high is 86.50. Today's low was 84.92 ½ and the 1-month low is 80.65. Since 12/5 February'26 Lean Hogs are 3.40 higher or more than 4%. The Fats and the Feeders both made new monthly highs today, and I feel we can see a run toward the contract highs. The path higher is easier this time as the tracks have already been laid. According to Bloomberg, Brazil is about to begin a cycle of tight supply in the Cattle Market. They have reported that the price for calves is increasing in Brazil, as Heifers are being retained to rebuild the herds. This, along with the tight cattle numbers here makes me think there could be another run higher in both the Fats and the Feeders. I feel the next move higher could be to fill the remaining gaps above. There is still one gap yet to be filled in the Fats and the Feeders, and they both sit just below the contract highs. For the Gap to be filled in the February'26 Live Cattle it needs to trade 249.55. That price is 12.92 ½ higher from today's settlement price, and just 62 ½ cents below the contract high of 250.17 ½. In the March'26 Feeders the gap would be filled if 376.70 was traded. That price is 17.67 ½ higher from today's settlement price, and just 1.90 below the contract high of 378.60. We will soon see if the Market can rally that high again, and a strong cash market will certainly help. The February'26 Hogs were lower today, but I still like them trading higher from here. There are charts below, and they show where the Gaps are in the Fats and the Feeders, along with a few trade examples. It's time to get your account open, so give me a call and I will answer any questions you have. Have a great night. 

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NOW IS THE TIME TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT BEFORE IT IS JULY AGAIN

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BELOW IS A DIRECT LINK TO FILL OUT ACCOUNT PAPERWORK - PLEASE CALL ME IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS.

https://portal2.straitsfinancial.com/Identity/Account/Register?brokerId=978

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Having a Trading or Hedging Account is essential for your business to be successful. Market volatility has increased across all commodities over the last 12 months, and I expect it to continue to increase over the next 12 months as well. Opening an account in the future, will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, you need to be able to manage risk in real time. If you are proactive now, you will have the ability to be reactive when you need to be. You can be Prepared and Patient at the same time. Call me or hit the direct link above.

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Through Walsh Trading I have built the best 5-man team in the business. Give me a call and let me show you how the Pure Hedge Division can help your bottom line. 

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     The Grain Markets were all lower today, and did not close well, with the Beans leading the way lower. March'26 Soybeans were 5 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1056 ¼. Today's high was 1068 ¾ and the 1-month high is 1118. Today's low was 1055 ½ and the 1-month low is 1038. Since 12/5 March'26 Soybeans are 59 ¾ cents lower or more then 5%. March'26 Corn closed half a cent lower today. March'26 Corn was ½ a cent lower today and settled at 444. Today's high was 447 and the 1-month high is 453. Today's low was 443 ½ and the 1-month low is 435 ½. Since 12/5 March'26 Corn is ¾ of a cent higher or fractionally higher. The Wheat did not do much on a 5-cent range day. March'26 Wheat was 2 cents lower today and settled at 510 ½. Today's high was 515 and the 1-month high is 540. Today's low was 510 and the 1-month and contract low is 501 ½. Since 12/5 March'26 Wheat is 25 ¼ cents lower or more than 4%. The Grains did not look good today and settled near the lows of the day. China has been buying Soybean, approximately 10mt of the 12mt they said they would buy, but then what? Their commitment to by 25mt tons each year for 3 years is still below normal purchasing levels. With Brazil planting another record size crop that keeps on getting larger, and no real weather problems, I feel we can see the Beans drift lower toward the 1000 level. The US Government pushed the release of their biofuel blend rates till the end of the month, and that has caused the slump in the market. However, I still think we can see the Soybean Oil skyrocket higher this year, as the new domestic blend rates will be announced, and I anticipate we will see them increased. In addition to the US blend rates increasing, there are several other countries that plan on increasing their biofuel fuel blend rates as well, starting with Brazil, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Brazil will increase their blend rate with Soybean Oil, and Malaysia and Indonesia will be increasing their blend rate mainly with Palm Oil. There could be a very tight squeeze in the vegetable oil markets this year, and that is without any weather problems. The demand for Soybean Oil has continued to increase as well, with Soybean Oil sales hitting almost 50% of the USDA's forecast for 2025-2026. The 5-year average this time of year is under 32%. The Corn Market traded to within 6 cents of the 1-month high today, but if could not hold that level. There is demand for Corn, and a close above 450 ½ in March'26 would be a good start. The Wheat can and will still do whatever it wants, and the March'26 Wheat settled today just 9 cents above the contract low of 501 ½. If you have any questions for me, please give me a call. There are trades and charts below. Have a great night.

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REASONS WHY I AM STILL BULLISH SOYBEAN OIL - I FEEL RIGHT NOW IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY 

Here is why I like the Soybean Oil. The Palm Oil supply is getting tight, and export controls seem very possible later this year. The Indonesian Government must be worried about their supply, as they seized land in Palm Oil producing regions and placed them under State Owned Control. At the same time, the production and export supplies of Sunflower Oil are expected to decline, as the price continues to climb and make cheaper Soybean Oil more attractive. Sunflower Oil supplies are already tight, as production estimates have decreased throughout Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, which will limit the amount of Sunflower seed crushing, again making the cheaper Soybean Oil more attractive. Biofuel percentages are set to increase in Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia, and I would not be surprised if the Biofuel blend rates were raised domestically as well. Argentina has already sold most of their Soybeans to China, so their crushing will be limited as well. The Russia/Ukraine war has intensified and the Ports in Odesa, and their grain terminals have been hit, along with the railroads and a Soybean shipment at sea. I also learned a Sunflower Oil terminal was bombed as well. all of this puts a tighter squeeze on the vegetable Oil Markets, as demand is already very strong, with Soybean Oil sales almost hitting 50% of the USDA's forecast for 2025-2026. The 5-year average this time of year is under 32%. It all points to what could be a very dramatic price increase in the Soybean Oil Market. I have continued to buy Soybean Oil Future Spreads and Options Spreads, with a new target level of 64.00-66.00. The market breaking this week is an unexpected opportunity, and I took advantage of it, and will continue to do so, with Spreads in the Futures and Options. I have 3-month, 6–month, and 12-month strategies completed, and ready to go. Give me a call if you would like to know more. 

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THE TRADE BELOW WAS STRUCTURED AND SENT OUT TODAY 1/6/26

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THE TRADE BELOW WAS STRUCTURED AND SENT OUT 12/31/25

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WATCH IF THE NEXT GAP WILL BE FILLED IN THE FEBRUARY'26 LIVE CATTLE @ 249.55 - CONTRACT HIGH IS 250.17 ½ 

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WATCH IF THE NEXT GAP WILL BE FILLED IN THE MARCH'26 FEEDER CATTLE @ 376.70 - CONTRACT HIGH IS 378.60 

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THIS WEEKS WALSH GAMMA TRADER FROM YESTERDAY 1/5/26 BELOW. 

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If you don't like the customer service or personal attention you are receiving from your broker, you have options, and you don't have to stay there. I can have your new account open in 1-2 days. Call me anytime 312-957-8079 BALLEN@WALSHTRADING.COM   Sign Up Now

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If you would like to open an account, please use this direct link https://portal2.straitsfinancial.com/Identity/Account/Register?brokerId=978

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.

Having a Trading or Hedging Account is essential for your business to be successful. Market volatility has increased across all commodities over the last 12 months, and I expect it to continue to increase over the next 12 months as well. Opening an account in the future, will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, you need to be able to manage risk in real time. If you are proactive now, you will have the ability to be reactive when you need to be. You can be Prepared and Patient at the same time. Call me or hit the direct link above.

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USE THE QR CODE BELOW TO SIGNUP FOR TRADE ALERTS

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If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join my email list   Sign Up Now 

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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canadian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States. 

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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it. 

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Most Recent Walsh Gamma Trader Link - Walsh Gamma Trader

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GOD BLESS AMERICA

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Give me a call if you have any questions.

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Bill Allen

Vice President

Pure Hedge Division 

Direct: 312-957-8079

ballen@walshtrading.com

WALSH TRADING INC.

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Suite 540 Chicago, Illinois 60606

www.walshtrading.com

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. 

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