Shootin' the Bull about a wave count voided

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

​12/30/2025

Live Cattle:

​Traders pretty much just kept basis even to wind up today's trading.  Not much definitively took place.  Boxes were lower and cattle feeders continue to widen negative margins at placement.  

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Feeder Cattle:

​It didn't take long for traders to void the one of few rules of the Elliott Wave.  This one was going to be that the wave 3 can never be the shortest wave.  Hence, today, the pattern drawn out on Monday has been voided with today's close longer than the wave 3.  It will take some time and more data to see what is next. This doesn't change my opinion, or the position cattle producers are placing themselves in.  This was a wave count that could have been correct, is found not to be, and I'll start to recount and see what may lie in front of the industry.   ​

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​Corn:

​All were lower.  The Elephant in the room appears to be that there is no new demand anticipated to surface. A desire by China to increase domestic production, and South America not going to slow down at all, leaves US production with little export hope and not much new in the way of increased domestic usage.  As difficult as this may be, I recommend you explore making some percentage of marketing's in corn and beans while prices remain above the summer lows.  Both have the propensity to stagnate with ample supplies and demand questionable.    ​

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Energy:​

​Energy is mixed with crude soft and the products higher.  I continue to view energy as in a bear market with significant Presidential influence over.  Any further advancement of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine would be expected to be bearish energy.  ​

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Bonds:

​Bonds were firm by a couple of tic's.  Interest rate instruments are stagnating and the yield curve has done very little since the last Fed rate cut.  I don't expect much to take place until first of year.  At present, I am under the impression the President will attempt to keep the economy running hotter than cooler. ​

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​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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