(CCU26) (CCZ26) (CCHF27) (CAZ26) (HSY)
“How El Niño and recent heavy rains in Ghana created a new bull market for cocoa”
by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter and Co-Producer of Climatelligence
Scott Mathews - Editor and Co-Producer of Climatelligence
- August 5, 2026
(Some of the material in this post appeared earlier today on Substack)
Image Source: Best Weather, Inc. request to ChatGPT
I sent this out to our premium WeatherWealth clients earlier this week and cocoa prices sky rocketed more than 12% (as of this writing) in 2 days.
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“Spider” image source: WeatherWealth Newsletter
Introduction
West African rainfall patterns matter a lot for long-term cocoa prices because cocoa is rain-dependent, disease-sensitive, and heavily concentrated in a few West African origins. When rainfall becomes too erratic, too intense, or too dry, then production falls, disease pressure rises, and prices can stay elevated for longer periods. This happened back in June, as the image at the top of my report shows.
At that time, I made my first “buy cocoa futures” recommendation in months, after I was mostly bearish in 2025 on a rebound in global production, poor demand from record-high prices, and the chart pattern. Prices soared more than 20% when I recommended to traders to take big profits and to exit at least 50% of the position and/or sell call options against it.
Recent major price swings in cocoa: What were the reasons?
The historic bullish price moves in the fall of 2023 through winter of 2024 and then again early 2025 were due to different weather events. First, in 2023, a moderate El Niño resulted in below-normal west African rainfall, followed by a strong winter Harmattan Wind. Then, in late 2024 through early 2025, climate change resulted in disease issues from too much rain and a second back-to-back poor cocoa crop.
The subsequent mid- 2025 through early 2026 75% price collapse was attributed to poor demand at such high prices, the chart pattern, and my forecast a year ago of good West African weather and a rebound in global production.
Image Source: Composite by Best Weather, Inc. (chart by barchart.com - “Extreme Heat and Cocoa” insert by ICCO)
What 2026 reporting shows
A July 2026 report said Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 cocoa crop was expected to fall by more than 10%, and it specifically noted that cooler, wetter conditions back in June had encouraged black pod, a fungal disease that thrives in excess moisture. Another July 2026 report tied flooding and increased rainfall to a higher risk of fungal disease in cocoa-producing regions.
Notice some of the stressed areas in red. This image can be some exaggerated at times, but gives an idea that the West African cocoa crop is not as healthy as a year ago. Old trees and climate change are also to blame.
Source: NOAA/Veggiestar
What that means
Black pod is a long-standing major cocoa threat in West Africa, especially in humid conditions, and it can spread quickly enough to affect supply and prices. The disease is not a one-off event; it tends to reappear whenever rains, shade, and farm sanitation line up badly.
Climate change (if you do not believe in it, you are smoking something), is a big factor. Not just El Niño.
Image source: Best Weather, Inc., rendered by ChatGPT
Mechanism for cocoa price volatility: We stick to the weather
Cocoa grows best with well-distributed rainfall, and recent research notes that annual rainfall and the timing of dry spells matter as much as total accumulation. Too much rain can trigger black pod and other fungal problems, while too little rain stresses flowering and pod development, so both extremes can reduce yields.
Currently, according to Climate Predict (my in-house weather program), there will be mixed conditions for the next month or two and then potential problems later this year into 2027 from El Niño.
Image Source: Climate Predict LLC - a BestWeather, Inc. company
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We greatly appreciate your interest in Commodity Weather Intelligence!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and the BestWeather Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He is also a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA-registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short-term and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and energy markets, he holds a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
