Hogs Drift

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February Lean Hogs drifted all session, opening higher and making the session high at 82.55 and the trading to the low at 81.90. It settled near the high at 82.40. It was quiet and the range was tight as traders seem to need more information before moving price. Production is soaring as slaughter numbers are high along with weights putting production above last year and the 5-year average. Cutouts aren’t crashing anymore, stabilizing even as production jumps. African Swine Fever is engulfing Europe and Asia with Spain and the Ukraine the latest to suffer from this expanding disease. With our export reports behind schedule due to the government shutdown, we a seeing decent exports as we play catchup. Could we see strengthening exports due to the ASF appearing in Spain? I think that is one of the reasons we have stabilized as traders are hoping the US reaps some of the benefits from others misfortune. But we don’t know. The aggressive rally since making the low on November 21 at 77.125 comes even as China’s pork price continue to sag as production is high and demand is low even though this should be a strong seasonal demand period for pork. Expectations are for prices to continue to move lower as the economy continues to falter. This should temper imports but with the ASF in Spain, we could see the US make up any shortfall in exports from that country. At least that is the hope. The price action formed an inside candlestick with a very small range. Friday saw the market make a new high for the up move. It formed a shooting star candlestick indicating bulls are tired. Bears couldn’t take advantage of the situation on Monday as the market drifted. Settlement was above the 50-DMA which is declining and is now at 82.05. Trade is locked between resistance at 83.325 and support at 81.70. Are we topping or is this just a breather for bulls? We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a test of resistance 83.325. Resistance then comes in at 85.325. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 81.70 and the nearby rising 8-DMA now at 81.30. Support then comes in 80.40.

The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 94.56 as of 12/05/2025. 

The Lean Hog Index down ticked and is at 81.81 as of 12/04/2025.

Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 494,000, which is above last week’s 482,000 and last year’s 485,648.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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