Grain Spreads: Bean Strangles

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Commentary

Dips in the soybean volume became buying opportunities today highlighted by near term contracts. More Chinese business is being reported, though the market seemed not too impressed in my opinion. Wire services are reporting China is believed to have bought 10-15 cargoes (600k-900k tonnes) of U.S. soybeans yesterday.  January beans settled firm in to the holiday break and just ahead of end of month on Friday. The grain markets had a regular session today, no overnight trade tonight and no trade tomorrow for the Thanksgiving holiday, a hard opening Friday morning at 8:30 AM CT and then an early close Friday at 12:05 PM CT. USDA will publish the next Export Sales catch up data Friday morning for sales activity during the week of 10/16/25. The next CFTC COT data will be published Tuesday, 12/02/25, with data for the week ended 10/21/25. I see two scenarios moving forward in beans. I see prices either trading back to the late October gap at 10.70 or make another rally towards the highs just below 11.70. However, should we revisit recent highs, I see the potential for the 12.10 level to be tested. There are plenty of strangle opportunities to discuss regarding those potentials in my view. However, if I see the opportunity to buy the May 2026 bean 10.70 puts for less than 8 cents or $400 cost and risk plus trade costs, I think that is a good opportunity to buy premium at a major gap on the charts longer term. It settled at 14 cents today. There are plenty of strategies to play downside here, but unless a major weather issue develops in Brazil, I don’t see China coming close to 12 million metric tons of purchase in this crop year. I hope I’m wrong here, but if you have unpriced bean bushels or want to take advantage of bean prices north of 11.50 on the charts, let’s talk Turkey post-Thanksgiving. 

Happy Thanksgiving to all!!

Trade Ideas-N/A

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Sean Lusk

Vice President Commercial Hedging Division

Walsh Trading

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