Cattle Markets Crash and Burn

If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list  - SIgn Up Now

For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, November 25, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.

Sign Up Now

The cattle markets were limit down on Monday as fears continue to mount in the trading community that prices have reached their peak for the cycle. Tyson’s plant closing in Nebraska and shift reduction in Texas sent markets lower as traders ponder who is next? The market had strong volume offered at the down limit at the end of the session which could lead to more declines on Tuesday as traders rush to get their orders filled. The attack on the futures markets has taken a life of its own as continued news events has forced traders to sell the market in spite of the still bullish fundamental news. We have seen the Cattle on Feed reports continue to show tightening supply and a lack of heifer retention to rebuild the herd. The news cycle that has led to these declines could delay or limit any rebuilding of the herd as producers’ frustration of government intervention and negative comments about producer profitability have them up in arms. Why do the hard work when everyone is against you and anytime you have a chance to make money, someone is right there to stop you with irresponsible comments that take away any hope for the future, in my opinion. Tyson, in my opinion just proved that the fundamentals are still strong for cattle prices. By shutting down the plant and going to one shift in the other, they are saying supply is only going to get tighter and we can’t afford to keep these plants going. Expectations were high that at some point the packing industry would shut down plants after exhausting other ways to cut back on capacity. The timing of this shutdown when cash prices have imploded due to government interference just puts the dagger that much deeper into the wound. It’s not the removal of the tariffs to bring more beef into the country it is the direct attack on the producer that has ground the market into the hole. When the number one guy says your prices are too high it changes the mood and the outlook that people have on the market. We obviously need the imports as we were already on a record pace. What did the market do during this time of heavy imports…. That’s right …. It went to all-time highs repeatedly. That shows the demand we have had for beef. To say cattle prices are too high while not commenting on the cutout prices sends the wrong message to producers. No matter how hard you try, there is always someone there to try and knock you down. With this crash in cash and futures prices we have seen beef prices stay the same as demand for beef hasn’t changed much if any as the retail industry wouldn’t be paying these prices if demand was crashing. The packer is once again taking complete control and are giving thanks to the government for the gift. I believe this delays any chance for herd rebuilding to occur and limits the scope of the potential herd rebuild. Prices for beef will likely remain strong for longer than it could have been if the government had just stayed out of the commentary business…. We’ll see!  

The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 336.38 as of 11/21/2025. 

Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts decreased 0.99 to 370.49 and select decreased 1.47 to 355.51. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 14.98 and the load count was 120.

Monday’s estimated slaughter is 120,000, which is above last week’s 116,000 and below last year’s 122,205. 

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Monday, negotiated cash trade has been limited on light to moderate demand in the Western Cornbelt. There have been a few early live purchases at 208.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was last week with live purchases from 215.00-218.00 and dressed purchases from 340.00-347.00 on a light test. Negotiated cash trade has been inactive on light demand in all other feeding regions. The last established market test in the Texas Panhandle was last week at 224.00. The last established market test in Kansas was last week from 222.00-224.00. The last established market test in Nebraska was last week with live purchases from 216.00-219.00, mostly 218.00, and dressed purchases from mostly 340.00-345.00.

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle 208.00 and none on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

888.391.7894

Fax: 312.256.0109

bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com

www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.​
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.​

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.