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January Feeder Cattle gap opened lower just above the down limit price and instantly was down limit at 307.125. The low is a new low for the recent down move. It raced higher off the limit, went back to the limit price and then rallied to the session high at 317.025 by 12 PM. The rally closed the gap and it pulled back into the close to settle at 314.225. The gap open lower took price below the rising 200-DMA on the continuous chart now at 317.225 with the high stopping just under the moving average. The low stopped just above support at 306.475 and settlement was right at the key level at 314.20. The price action put in nice reversal as traders were hoping the so -called bearish news about the President eliminating the 40% tariff on Brazilian beef was likely the last of the bearish news that could affect cattle. The pullback at the end of the day could be about rumors there is more bad news out there. The Wall Street Journal said Tyson will be shutting down a plant in Lexington Nebraska. This might not affect Feeders as much as the Live Cattle market but if traders fear the closure, then Feeders likely will be affected also. Some however believe the closure is not a big deal as Tyson has a lot of unused capacity at its other plants that will take up the cattle that would go to the plant. We’ll see!... A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at 311.90, 310.55, 309.475 and then 306. 475. If price can overcome resistance at the 200-DMA, we could test resistance at 319.45. Resistance then comes in at 321.00.
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 339.72 as of 11/20/2025.
February Live Cattle also crashed at the open, gap opening lower and breaking down almost going down limit at the low at 208.175. The breakdown took price below support at 208.80 and it stopped just above support at 207.725. This is also a new low for the down move. Price quickly reversed and rallied to the high at 217.15 by 11:00 AM. It pulled back into the close and settled at 214.775. The rallied stalled just below resistance at 217.75 and the flattening 200-DMA now at 217.90. The pullback took price to the key level at 214.325. The President’s order to take off the 40% tariffs on Brazil put the open in jeopardy but cooler heads prevailed as the market quickly rallied off the open. In my opinion, the export news shouldn’t be a bother to the market as we have seen imports explode this year and cash and futures prices rallied to new all-time highs. We are short product and anything that keeps the consumer in the ballgame is beneficial for the market. I think too much has been made of the imports, but it is the President’s comments that are the real problem for the producer. His early attack on cattle prices was improper and doesn’t allow for the market to find its own way, which is what needs to happen in my opinion. The Cattle on Feed report was released this afternoon after the close and was bullish in my opinion as we continue to place less cattle in feedlots keeping pressure on supply. The USDA said the on-feed number was down 2% with placements down 10% and cattle marketed down 8%. Tyson is looking to stick the dagger deeper into the market, saying they will close their plant in Lexington, NE. This could put another scare in the market on Monday’s open but they will bring the cattle to other plants as they have room in these other plants. I don’t believe it will be a burden on the market because they can step up the slaughter at the other plants. It is interesting they are doing this in Nebraska where it is presumed to have an abundance of supply for slaughter with the shortages remaining in the south. They are obviously looking to scare the producer, in my opinion as cash prices have collapsed from the all-time highs taking prices down to 210.00 on the mandatory report on Friday. We’ll see!... A failure from settlement could see price re-test support at 210.975. Support then comes in at 208.80 and 207.725. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance at 215.60. Resistance then comes in at 217.75 and the 200-DMA.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 0.20 to 371.48 and select increased 2.80 to 356.98. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 14.50 and the load count was 145.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 105,000, which is above last week’s 93,000 and below last year’s 118,703. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 7,000, which is below last week’s 12,000 and last year’s 17,170. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 585,000, which is above last week’s 576,000 and below last year’s 635,308.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on moderate demand in all feeding regions. The last established market in the Texas Panhandle was Wednesday at 224.00. The last established market test in Kansas was Wednesday at 224.00. The last established market test in Nebraska was Wednesday with live purchases from mostly 218.00-219.00 and dressed purchases from 340.00-347.00. The last established live market in the Western Cornbelt was Thursday from 215.00-218.00, mostly 215.00. The last established dressed market in the Western Cornbelt was Wednesday from 340.00-347.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 210.00 – 224.00 and from 332.00 – 347.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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