NVDA Ignites the Tape — Now the Market Must Stick the Landing

E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6661.50, up 21.75

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24,721.75, up 126.00

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ traded constructively yesterday, with higher lows than Tuesday and higher lows intraday than overnight. Price action finished firm, despite the Fed Minutes showing a deep divide on a December cut, and deteriorating odds of a rate cut due to the lack of economic data before the December 10th decision. With the E-mini S&P closing about 1% from the low on the week, this set the stage for NVDA’s highly anticipated earnings report. The company blew the doors off in a fitting fashion that only NVDA could, reporting $57.01 billion in revenue versus $55.19 billion, $1.30 EPS versus $1.25, and Q4 guidance of $63.7-$66.3 billion versus $62 billion. The stock is +5% this morning, and has lifted the entire market with the E-mini S&P +1% and the E-mini NQ +1.5% overnight. 

It will now be critical for NVDA, the AI names that benefit from the report, and the market as a whole to stick the landing. We cannot see another failed rebound. Today must finish higher than it was overnight, even if marginally, and Friday must finish the week strongly. In comes historically backward-looking jobs data with the September Nonfarm Payroll Report due at 7:30 am CT, along with accompanying Fed comments throughout the day.

Yesterday’s path testing the lows was constructive. Now, we must see a constructive extension of this rally. Overnight strength tested unchanged on the week in the E-mini S&P and major three-star resistance at 6755.25-6758.50. This is a level we must see a close above tomorrow in order to begin neutralizing the weakness from this week. It would be normal for a healthy consolidation through the first part of today. Price action can dip below our Pivot and point of balance, and respond to our listed supports, but ultimately through the first hour we want to see the tape above these levels at…

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