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RICH MORAN                                                                                                    11/19/2025

SOYBEAN OIL - Bullish Spread Trade Strategies

THE TRADES LISTED BELOW ARE BASED ON OUR MARKET OPINION ONLY, ARE SPECULATIVE TRADES AND REFLECT OUR LONG-TERM MARKET OUTLOOK, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE FEES AND COMMISSIONS. 

1. OPTION SPREADS:

MAY’26 SOYBEAN OIL 52.24 

56.62 – CONTRACT HIGH 

53.62 – 1-MONTH HIGH 

52.69 – 100-DAY MOVING AVERAGE 

51.61 – 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE 

50.50 – 61.8% RETRACEMENT FROM 52-WEEK LOW 

50.14 – 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE

49.64 – 1-MONTH LOW 

48.61 – 50% RETRACEMENT FROM 52-WEEK HIGH/LOW 

40.60 – CONTRACT LOW 

MAY’26 SOYBEAN OIL 52.24 

1.

The Trade below was structured today 11/19/25, using today’s Bid and Offer prices. May’26 Soy Bean Oil was 52.24 when this trade was structured. May’26 Soybean Oil Options Expire 4/24/25 (156 Days).

THE TRADE BELOW IS A BULLISH SOYBEAN OIL TRADE. BUYING A CALL SPREAD AND SELLING A PUT SPREAD. IT ALSO COMES WITH A $534.00 CREDIT/TRADE PACKAGE. 

BUY 1 MAY’26 56.00 CALL 2.19 

SELL 1 MAY’26 61.00 CALL 1.12 ½ 

SELL 1 MAY’26 51.50 PUT 3.11 

BUY 1 MAY’26 46.50 PUT 1.15 ½ 

PRICE: 0.89 CREDIT       

COST: $534.00 CREDIT/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS. 

MAY’26 SOYBEAN OIL OPTIONS EXPIRE 4/24/26 (156 DAYS) 

MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED 

2.

The Trade below was structured today 11/19/25, using today’s Bid and Offer prices. May’26 Soy Bean Oil was 52.30 when this trade was structured. May’26 Soybean Oil Options Expire 4/24/25 (156 Days).

THE TRADE BELOW IS A BULLISH SOYBEAN OIL TRADE. BUYING A CALL SPREAD AND SELLING A PUT SPREAD. IT ALSO COMES WITH A $714.00 CREDIT/TRADE PACKAGE.

BUY 1 MAY’26 56.00 CALL 2.19 

SELL 1 MAY’26 61.00 CALL 1.12 ½ 

SELL 1 MAY’26 51.50 PUT 3.11 

BUY 1 MAY’26 46.50 PUT 1.15 ½ 

PRICE: 0.89 CREDIT       

COST: $714.00 CREDIT/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS. 

MAY’26 SOYBEAN OIL OPTIONS EXPIRE 4/24/26 (156 DAYS) 

MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED

1. FUTURES SPREADS:

We also believe these spreads could move up (more positive/less negative) so there might be opportunity in getting long them.

1. MAR-JULY’26 SOYBEAN-OIL SPREAD (ZLH26-ZLN26): Today’s Settlement is -0.47
2. MAY-JULY’26 SOYBEAN-OIL SPREAD (ZLK26-ZLN26): Today’s Settlement is -0.12
3. JAN-MAR’26 SOYBEAN-OIL SPREAD (ZLF26-ZLH26): Today’s Settlement is -0.53. 

***This is the Soybean Oil Spread I have been writing about (please see below).

1. Synthetic Long Soybean Oil

Buy 1 SEPT ’26 SOYBEAN FUTURE, Sell 2 JULY ’26 SOYBEAN MEAL FUTURES 

ZSU26 – (ZMN26x2)

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Following up on the still active past trade ideas:

• 11/14/2025: ZCH26-ZCZ26 (MAR-DEC’26 Corn Spread)

Today’s settlement: -21¼, Long at -23½ 

I had suggested trying to buy this spread when the corn market opens on Sunday night at -23½ or better.  If you do not get filled on the opening, continue to work a -23½ bid.

On 11/17/25 MAR-DEC’26 Corn Spread opened at -23 and traded down to -23¾, so we are long (on paper) at -23/½. 

 Risk 8 cents (price of -31½) or $400 Per Spread to make 23½ cents (price of -½) or $1,175 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.   

• 11/12/2025: KEH’26-ZWH’26 (March’26 Kansas City-Chicago Wheat Spread)

Today’s settlement: -17¾, Long at -14½ 

Hard Red Winter Wheat minus (-) Soft Red Winter Wheat is more commonly known as the Kansas City-Chicago Wheat Spread.

We are already long (on paper) the DEC ’25 version of this spread (KEZ25-ZWZ25 at -14½ from 9/25/2025.

 If we can sell our KEZ25-ZWZ25 Wheat Spread and buy the KEH26-ZWH26 Wheat Spread at the same price, we would be selling the (KEZ25-ZWZ25) - (KEH26-ZWH26) condor at zero (0) or par.  This would leave us flat in the KEZ25-ZWZ25 (that we were previously long) and long KEH26-ZWH26 (where we previous flat) at -14½.

If we are able to roll these DEC ’25 spreads into March ‘26 spreads at par, I suggest using the same exit points as we were already using.

Risk 8 cents (price of -22½) or $400 to make 24 cents (price of +9½ or $1,200, plus fees and commissions.

*** The (KEZ25-ZWZ25)-(KEH26-ZWH26) Condor opened up yesterday at +¼ and traded up to +1¼, so we could have sold evens or 0’s (par).  So, we would have rolled our KEZ25-ZWZ25 long position at -14½ to being long the KEH’26-ZWH’26 spread at -14¼.

Risk 8 cents (price of -22½) or $400 to make 24 cents (price of +9½ or $1,200, plus fees and commissions.

• 11/7/2025: ZSF26-ZSH26 (JAN-MAR’26 Soybean-Spread)

Today’s Settlement: -8¼, Long at -9½

**** I am starting to think that the upward run in the Soybeans might be running out of gas.  I am changing my suggested exit points …

Risk a scratch at -9½ or take a 2 cents winner (price or -7½) or $100 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

I believe the Soybean Oil market may continue to move higher.  As I wrote last Wednesday (10/27/25), if the JAN-MAR’26 Soybean-Oil Spread gets above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, which is very close, it may strengthen more because it is above full carry.  This spread could help strengthen the JAN-MAR’26 Soybean-Spread.  Also, the potential soybean purchases that might be coming in from places like Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan etc. could help soybeans to uptick and we may see JAN-Soybeans (ZSF26) make a new 52-week high above 1137.  This could strengthen the JAN-MAR’26 Soybean-Spread as well.

Today (11/7/25), the JAN-MAR’26 Soybean-Spread settled -8¾. I suggest to bid -9.5 for this spread.  That is just above the 14-day moving average (-9¾) and the 21-day moving average (-10¾).  The spread has been hovering above these moving averages since 10/21/25.

*** Yesterday (Tuesday 11/11/25), the spread opened at -9½ and traded lower, so we are long at – 9½.

I had suggest putting in a short stop at -13, risking 3.5 cents or $175 Per Spread to make 9 cents (price of -0.5) or $450 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions, but that has changed.  Please see above for new exit points.

• 11/5/2025: ZWH26-ZWK26 (MAR-MAY’26 Wheat-Spread)

Today’s Settlement: -9, Long at -10½

Today (11/7/25) ZWH26-ZWK26 settled at -9¼, about 1 cent above the 14-day moving average (-10) and the 21-day moving average (-10¼).  Because we are already long Wheat Spreads, we can be more patient trying to buy the ZWH26-ZWK26 Spread.  If the spread gets close to these moving averages while staying above them, I think it might be a good place to get long this Wheat Spread.  At this point, that would be around -11.  The 52-week low is -13½.

Friday (11/7/25) I said, “If we are fortunate to get long ZWH26-ZWK26 at -10½ …. I suggest risking 3½ cents (price of -14) or $175 Per Spread to make 9 cents (price of -1½) or $450 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

*** Today (11/12/25), we open at -10½ and traded lower, so we are long at -10½.

Risk 3½ cents (price of -14) or $175 Per Spread to make 9 cents (price of -1½) or $450 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

• 10/27/2025: ZLF26-ZLH26 (JAN-MAR’26 Soybean Oil Spread)

Today (11/7/25) the JAN-MAR’26 Soybean Oil Spread (ZLF26-ZLH26) settled at -0.55 below both the 14-day moving average that ended the day at -0.53 and the 21-day moving average that ended the day -0.51.

We are basing this trade on the current Fully-Carry levels.  Full Carry for the JAN ’26 Soybean Oil – (minus) MAR ’26 Soybean Oil Spread is 0.44 cents (or 44 – 100^ths of a cent).  Every tic represents 1/100^th of a cent and is worth $6.00. 

On Wednesday (10/29/25), the spread settled at -0.51 cents.  That was 115.9% of full carry.  So, we settled 15.9% above full carry.  This spread does go above full carry-on occasion and how far it will go we never know, but I believe the risk/reward for getting long ZLF226-ZLH26 at these levels might be something to try, using a fairly short stop below the 52-week low with the hope of a nice move up (less negative).

I am suggesting that if we can trade above and settle above these moving averages, we try to get long this spread.  We can pick our exact exit points when and if we are able to put this trade on.

Yesterday, ZLF26-ZLH26 traded above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages and settled above them at -0.51.  I still believe it might now be a good time to get long this spread. Please see above.  Today it settled at -0.53.  I suggest trying to by this spread when it reopens at -0.52 or better. If you are not filled on the opening, I think you could keep a resting bid in at -0.52.  We can pick our exit points depending on when, if and where we are able to get long.  

• 10/1/2025: SBH26-SBK26 (MAR-MAY’26 Sugar #11 Spread)

Today’s settlement: 0.46, Long at 0.42

On 10/1/25 I said, “I think it might be a good play to bid today’s settlement (42 cents) or better when the Sugar market opens.”

“If we get filled, risk 24 cents or $268.80 Per Spread to make 50 cents or $560 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.

On 10/2/25 the market opened at .41, so we are long at .42.

Risk 24 cents (price of .18) or $268.80 Per Spread to make 50 cents (price of .92) or $560.00 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.

• 7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread)

Today’s Settlement: -12¾, Long at -18½

**** The last day of trading for DEC’25 WHEAT (DEC’25) is 12/12/25 and that is only.3 weeks from Friday.  The volume in Wheat futures is already much larger in March than December. We have a nice lead in this trade (ZWZ25-ZWH26), so I suggest trying to sell out of this position at -13½  or better when the market reopens this evening. If we don’t get filled on the open, li think you should leave a -13½ offer in.

We were risking 3½ cents (price of -22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (price of -8½) or $500 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

Today (10/31/25) I am lowering our stop to -18½ for a scratch.  I never like to turn a winner into a loser.

So now we are risking a scratch (price of -18½) To Make 10 cents (price of -8½) or $500 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

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Rich Moran

Senior Commodities Broker

RMoran@walshtrading.com

Direct: (312)985-0298

Cell: (773)502-5321

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