Grain Spreads: Dec 25/March 26 Corn

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Commentary

Corn was once again led about by the soybean complex with another “buy the rumor, sell the fact” event. More soybean sales to China were announced, somewhat smaller than before but the sales did confirm rumors. Reuters is reporting the Trump administration is considering delaying rules limiting imported feedstocks for biofuels production by 1-2 years amid concerns the move could raise fuel costs in the U.S. and tighten fuel supplies. Soybean oil futures came under additional pressure upon release of the story, The corn market found itself with little news to drive it up today in my view. CFTC did release the COT report today from 9/30/25 but it is such stale information it is hard to really pull any meaningful information from it. USDA will put out an export sales report for tomorrow but it’s for the week of 10/2 so not current, like the COT data. This roll out of old reports is not well thought out in my view. It would be better if USDA would release all the export data all at once from the shutdown and start fresh. I included a chart of Dec/March corn. If it can trade to 10 cents Dec 25 under, do you sell it? In my view if there are going to be deliveries, it may not be a bad idea. The spread could trade back down to the Oct lows of 16 cents Dec 25 under in my opinion.

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Sean Lusk

Vice President Commercial Hedging Division

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