Walsh Pure Grain Technicals / Daily News - Pure Hedge Division

Jonathan Wiedeman                                                                                                                11/18/2025 

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Daily ZSF6: 

January soybeans closed the day lower after taking out yesterday's high of 1160 ¼ and trading up to 1169 ½ before fading lower.  USDA also reported a daily sale of 792,000 MT to China for the 2025-26 marketing year. Looking at the daily charts for January beans we have resistance at 1169 ½ which was today’s high, and first support is coming in at the 14-day moving average which is 1129 ½ then followed by yesterday’s low of 1114 ¼. (see chart below)

Weekly ZSF6:

Looking at the weekly charts for January beans we have resistance at 1169 ½ which is today’s high followed by the psychological $12. For support in January soybeans, we have 1103 ½ followed by the 100-period moving average of 1082 ¾ on the weekly charts. (see chart below).

Fundamentals:

Reports of funds buying 30,000 contracts of beans yesterday followed by a morning sale this morning to China has led the bean complex to quite a volatile trade to start the week. Soybean Oil led the upside today and traded above the 100-day moving average off of the January contract for the first time in almost two months! NOPA crush for October was released and came in a new all-time record high and above the estimates from the private analysist. Brazil soybeans are also 71% planted vs 80% a year ago.  Progress for the US harvest which was released yesterday comes in at 95% completed which is on track for the 5-year average.  Will keep an eye on any updated morning sales announcements and also any updated releases of the CFTC reports to see how funds are positioned in the market.

Trade Ideas: 

N/A

Daily ZCZ5:

December corn closed the day higher and bouncing off recent support after Fridays sharp break lower after the report.  We will continue to see if we can get some consecutive closes above the 200-day moving average which is coming in at 435 ¼.  Support on the daily charts in Dec corn comes in at 428 ½ which was yesterday's low followed by 425 which is the 50day moving average.  Resistance is at the double top of 442 ¾ followed by 450. (see chart below)

Weekly ZCZ5:

Looking at the weekly charts for December corn we have resistance at 442 ¾ followed by 451 ¾ which is the 100-period moving average.  For support I am also using 426 ¼ and 421 ¼ which is the 21-period moving average. (see chart below).

Fundamentals: 

With corn seeing some decent demand over the past few weeks it’s definitely trying to erase some of the damage done on the charts after Fridays report. The USDA released harvest progress yesterday and now has the US corn crop 91% harvested which is slightly below the 5-year average.  We have option expiration this Friday in the December contract so it could be an interesting trade to wrap up the week. 

Trade Ideas:

Long the December 410 calls (we were long the CZ5 410-450 call spread for 8 ½ and covered the short 450 portion for ½ cent) place an order to get out at 27 cents or better GTC.

Daily ZWZ5:

December wheat closed the day higher following the bearish report from the USDA on Friday. With tensions with Russia, we might see some more premium added to the market and an attempt to take out the recent high of 555 which I am using as first resistance on the daily charts followed by 563 ½ which is the 200-day moving average.  For support we have the 100day moving average at 532 ½ then 524 ½ which was the report low on Friday. (see chart below)

Weekly ZWZ5:

Looking at the weekly charts for December wheat we have support at 524 ½ followed by 522 ¼ which is the 14-period moving average.  For resistance we have 555 followed by the 50-period moving average of 569. (see chart below).

Fundamentals:

 The Fundamentals remain bearish for wheat with higher than expected ending and global stocks. We still have no updated CFTC data to see how funds are positioned but the private analysist are still predicting that funds still have a decent short position on in the wheat market. Yesterday’s crop conditions report did show that US winter wheat conditions were down to 45% in the good to excellent category compared to the estimate of 52%.

Trade Ideas:

Long the 530 calls (we were long the WZ5 530-570 call spread for 9 cents and covered the short 570 portion for ½ cent), place an order to get out for 18 cents or better GTC.

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Jon Wiedeman

Pure Hedge Division

Direct: 1 312 957 8108

jwiedeman@walshtrading.com

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