Cattle Markets Rebound

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January Feeder Cattle crashed at the open making the low at 314.525. This was a retest of the 200-DMA on the continuous chart now at 316.225 and the key level at 314.20. The market quicky reversed course as the breakdown occurred in the first minute of trade and rallied the rest of the session to the high at 327.50. The rally took price to resistance at 326.875 where it dipped into the close to settle at 326.275. The weak open and ensuing rally once again saw the 200-DMA hold back the negativity in the market. It also saw a Bullish Engulfing candle develop with Monday’s price action. Secretary Rollins said in an interview that she will open the border sometime soon with Mexico to get cattle into the US. She said the screwworm is under control but there is still a couple of things before we get there. We are getting close and the President is hyper-focused on the situation. This is likely what prompted the opening crash in the Feeder market. With the 200-DMA providing strong support could this mean the re-opening of the border is priced in the market? We’ll see!... A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at the rising 13-DMA now at 323.075. Support then comes in at the rising 200-DMA and then 314.20. If price can overcome resistance at 326.875, we could test resistance at 329.075. Resistance then comes in at 332.075.

The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 341.89 as of 11/14/2025. 

December Live Cattle also crashed at the open, making the low during the first minute of the session at 216.45 and then rallying the rest of the session to the high at 222.125. It dipped into the close and settled at 221.275. The breakdown occurred as Secretary Rollins talked up the re-opening of the border with Mexico and the President removed the reciprocal tariffs on beef imports and other products, excepting the 40% punitive tariff on Brazilian beef imports. The weak open saw price test support at the rising 200-DMA now at 217.55. The rally stalled at the flattening 8-DMA now at 222.50. The price action formed a Bullish Engulfing candle. The market tested support for the second day in a row and held at the 200-DMA. We get the November Cattle on Feed Report on Friday and early guesses are for the on-feed to be down 2% and placements and marketings down 8%. We also may see the October numbers with expectations similar to the November report. JBS said that supplies will tighten further into 2026 and this may have helped stem the decline on the open. Slaughter was exceptional last week, hitting 576,000 for the week which is the largest slaughter we’ve had since June. The packing industry has seen a lot of high load counts over the past few weeks so could this be the start of higher slaughter numbers into the holiday season as they must get product to fill those orders and future sales? Could the packing industry need to get aggressive going forward in the cattle purchases? We’ll see!... A failure from settlement could see price re-test support at 220.05. Support then comes in at 218.625. If price can hold get above the 8-DMA, it could test resistance at 223.275. Resistance then comes in at 224.55.

Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts decreased 0.32 to 370.41 and select increased 2.06 to 356.30. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 14.11 and the load count was 75.

Monday’s estimated slaughter is 116,000, which is above last week’s 113,000 and below last year’s 119,504. 

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Monday, negotiated cash trade has been inactive on light demand in all feeding regions. The last established market test in the Texas Panhandle was last week at 228.00. The last established market test in Kansas was last week at 228.00. The last established market test in Nebraska was last week with live purchases from 223.00-225.00, mostly 225.00, and dressed purchases from 350.00-355.00. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was last week with live purchases from 222.00-227.00 and dressed purchases at mostly 350.00.

The USDA is indicating no cash trades for live cattle and on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

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