Abundant US Nat-Gas Inventories Weigh on Prices

September Nymex natural gas (NGU26) on Friday closed down -0.011 (-0.40%).

Nat-gas prices posted modest losses on Friday amid signs of adequate US supplies.  As of July 24, EIA nat-gas inventories were +6.4% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling abundant supplies.   

Losses in nat-gas prices were limited on Friday amid forecasts for hotter US weather, potentially boosting nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power an expected increase in air conditioning use.  The Commodity Weather Group said on Friday that forecasts shifted warmer, with above-normal temperatures expected in the western half of the US through August 14.

Nat-gas prices tumbled to a 3-month nearest-futures (Q26) low on Wednesday as recent below-normal US temperatures have reduced air-conditioning demand and allowed nat-gas inventories to be rebuilt.

A bearish factor for nat-gas prices in the medium term is speculation that a powerful El Niño weather system will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, reducing nat-gas heating demand. 

US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 112.7 bcf/day (+3.4% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 80.1 bcf/day (+0.2% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 17.9 bcf/day (-2.2% w/w), according to BNEF.

Projections for higher US nat-gas production are negative for prices.  On July 7, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 111.2 bcf/day from a June estimate of 111.0 bcf/day.

As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended July 18 rose +2.0% y/y to 101,391 GWh (gigawatt hours).  Also, US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending July 18 rose +2.3% y/y to 4,350,346 GWh.

Thursday's weekly EIA report was supportive for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended July 24 rose by +28 bcf, less than expectations of +37 bcf but above the 5-year weekly average increase of +26 bcf.  As of July 24, nat-gas inventories were down -1.2% y/y, and +6.4% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies.  As of July 28, gas storage in Europe was 56% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 72% full for this time of year.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending July 31 was unchanged at 127 rigs, below the 3-year high of 134 rigs set in February 2026.