Shootin' the Bull about price targets to shoot for

“Shootin’ The Bull”TM

by Christopher B Swift

7/30/2026

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Live Cattle:​

Traders have shored up the basis, and put $10.50 back on to October. A 50% retracement of October will place it at $230.00, which happens to be the gap area from 7/13 to 7/14.  Producers have had a preliminary look at how much and how quickly prices can move against them.  As this decline is believed only the first of many to come, when traders are offered an even to negative basis, producers are urged to take action in those time frames. 

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​​​​​Feeder Cattle: ​

Today's activity appeared more spreading than directional.  Spreads have become very active due to the positive basis spread and expectations of more cattle inventory. Fundamentals are being skewed in every which way possible, creating significant price expanse and volatility.  

Via January feeder cattle, I recommend executing bear put spreads, or owning the at the money option, as prices are moving higher, towards the down trend line. This is shown on the hourly chart below.  I am using the high on 7/21 and 7/24 to draw the lines from, as those are believed the tops of waves A and C, with current wave an E.  This too is shown on the October contract below.  

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Due to the shifting fundamentals, expect more volatility, price expanse, and possible movement you couldn't believe could happen.  

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​​​​Corn:

The rally faded by days end.  Grains and oilseeds are having a tough go coming off contract highs and sharp rallies from last week.  Weather models are predicting rains that will be too late for corn and potentially beneficial towards beans, if it rains.  The pull back in corn is believed an opportunity to fix some feed prices at levels you no longer wish to pay, and delivered in time frames needed.  I remain friendly towards these markets and believe they are simply correcting previous up moves.  

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Energy:​

​Diesel fuel backed off a little and the spreads between all were all over the place today.  Like the cattle, there are multiple factors at play that are making the spreads volatile and more price expansive than just an outright long or short commodity. All of this leads me to believe there is great indecisions within the markets and spreading is a way to help manage the immense volatility and price expanse currently being experienced. Due to the extent of price expanse, options are a way to manage this with a limited risk derivative. 

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Bonds:

​Bonds were sharply lower with new contract lows made today.  Interest rates are going up and the Fed doesn't need to raise the discount rate.  Banks will have a wider spread to work with and consumers will have to pay more to borrow money. On a side note, I don't think the government can stop printing money now, as the military actions abroad and domestic K shaped economy sucking money to the top, are not going to stop until the bubble pops.  

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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