Kalshi has reported 10,467 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “When will the next U.S. recession start?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 2% chance for "Q1 2025", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 2% probability.
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 62,790 transactions since it was first opened on March 19, 2025. There are 33,837 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 13,780,582 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Powell leaves before 2026? (24h volume: 325749)
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 263683)
- Will the federal government shut down for more than 10 days? (24h volume: 78421)
- Will the Republican party win the governorship in New Jersey (24h volume: 71967)
- Will the Republican party win the governorship in Virginia (24h volume: 63140)
- Will a representative of the Andrew Cuomo party win the NYC Mayor race in 2025? (24h volume: 50401)
- Will Curtis Sliwa drop out of the NYC Mayoral race? (24h volume: 33709)
- Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q3 2025? (24h volume: 24684)
- Donald Trump out this year? (24h volume: 23905)
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in September 2025? (24h volume: 21370)
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