Markets bet on whether Adelita Grijalva will win between 40% and 44.99% of votes in 2025 Arizona's 7th congressional district special election

Kalshi has reported 7,333 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will win between 40% and 44.99% of votes in 2025 Arizona's 7th congressional district special election?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 2% chance for "Between 40% and 44.99%", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 2% probability.

If the margin of victory for Adelita Grijalva in 2025 Arizona's 7th congressional district special election in Arizona falls within between 40% and 44.99% percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 83,986 transactions since it was first opened on September 11, 2025. There are 23,449 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 150,450 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

• Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 518796)
• Lisa DeNell Cook out as Federal Reserve Governor before Jan 2026? (24h volume: 365129)
• Will a representative of the Democratic party win the NYC Mayor race in 2025? (24h volume: 175276)
• Will the federal government shut down for more than 10 days? (24h volume: 172571)
• Will the Fed cut rates 5 times? (24h volume: 109206)
• Will the Republican party win the governorship in New Jersey (24h volume: 101604)
• Will average **gas prices** be above $3.10? (24h volume: 90440)
• Will above 25000 jobs be added in September 2025? (24h volume: 72203)
• Will the Republican party win the governorship in Virginia (24h volume: 65443)
• Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in September? (24h volume: 42559)