Radware Reports Tomorrow After Insiders Spent Most of the Quarter Selling
Radware Ltd (NASDAQ: RDWR) reports second-quarter 2026 earnings before market open on July 29, 2026, with investors focused on whether the cybersecurity company can extend its streak of consecutive earnings beats. The central question is whether Radware can maintain its momentum in cloud security and DDoS protection amid a challenging macroeconomic backdrop that has weighed on enterprise IT spending.
Part 1: Earnings Preview
Radware is an Israeli cybersecurity company specializing in application delivery and cyber security solutions, with core offerings in DDoS protection, web application security, and cloud-native security services. The company serves enterprises and service providers globally, competing in the rapidly evolving cloud security market.
Radware is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results before market open on July 29, 2026. The company most recently reported $0.16 per share for Q1 2026 (September 2025 quarter). Analyst estimates for the upcoming quarter are not available in current coverage, though prior guidance had pointed to $0.11 per share for the December 2025 quarter. Comparing to the year-ago period, Radware reported $0.11 per share in Q2 2025 (December 2024 quarter), suggesting expectations for modest year-over-year growth if prior estimates hold.
Three key themes define this earnings story:
Cloud Security Transition: Radware's shift from on-premises appliances to cloud-native security services remains the dominant narrative. Investors will scrutinize recurring revenue growth and cloud adoption metrics as indicators of whether the company is successfully navigating this strategic pivot in an increasingly competitive market.
Enterprise Spending Environment: With broader macroeconomic headwinds affecting IT budgets—particularly notable in the current environment where Trump's approval ratings have hit record lows amid tariff concerns—investors are watching whether cybersecurity spending remains resilient or faces budget pressure from cautious enterprise customers.
Competitive Positioning: The DDoS protection and web application firewall markets have intensified with both established players and cloud-native startups vying for share. Radware's ability to differentiate its offerings and maintain pricing power will be critical to demonstrating sustainable competitive advantages.
Analyst commentary ahead of the release has been limited given the lack of current estimates, though the company's track record of consistent beats has maintained investor confidence. The two strong buy ratings among the four covering analysts suggest conviction in Radware's long-term positioning, even as near-term visibility remains clouded by the broader spending environment.
Part 2: Historical Earnings Performance
Radware has demonstrated consistent execution over the past four quarters, beating analyst estimates in every reported period where estimates were available. The company delivered $0.11 in Q2 2025 (December 2024), exceeding the $0.07 estimate by 57.14%—the strongest beat in the series. This was followed by $0.13 in Q3 2025 (March 2025), topping estimates by 30.00%, and $0.15 in Q4 2025 (June 2025), beating by 15.38%.
The pattern reveals sequential EPS growth across all four quarters, rising from $0.11 to $0.16, alongside a trend of moderating beat magnitudes. While the percentage beats have compressed from 57% to 15%, this likely reflects analysts adjusting estimates upward to account for the company's improving fundamentals rather than deteriorating performance. The most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reported $0.16 but lacked an estimate for comparison, making it difficult to assess relative performance.
The consistent upward trajectory in absolute earnings—combined with the unbroken string of beats—suggests Radware has been executing well on its cloud transition and maintaining operational discipline. Investors should expect the company to meet or exceed expectations again, though the magnitude of any surprise may be more modest given analysts' recent recalibrations.
| Quarter | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Surprise % | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2024 | $0.07 | $0.11 | +57.14% | Beat |
| Mar 2025 | $0.10 | $0.13 | +30.00% | Beat |
| Jun 2025 | $0.13 | $0.15 | +15.38% | Beat |
| Sep 2025 | N/A | $0.16 | N/A | N/A |
Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Radware typically reports before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the first full trading session reaction to results, while Day +1 reflects follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | +$1.50 (+5.58%) | $1.59 (5.94%) | -$0.88 (-3.10%) | $2.11 (7.44%) |
| 2026-02-11 | +$1.43 (+5.44%) | $2.22 (8.45%) | -$1.32 (-4.76%) | $2.69 (9.70%) |
| 2025-10-29 | -$0.63 (-2.37%) | $2.02 (7.59%) | -$0.59 (-2.27%) | $2.09 (8.04%) |
| 2025-07-30 | -$1.64 (-5.79%) | $2.46 (8.69%) | -$1.09 (-4.08%) | $1.55 (5.81%) |
| 2025-05-07 | -$0.34 (-1.49%) | $2.90 (12.74%) | -$0.39 (-1.74%) | $1.08 (4.82%) |
| 2025-02-12 | +$0.77 (+3.31%) | $1.53 (6.59%) | +$0.12 (+0.50%) | $0.92 (3.83%) |
| 2024-10-31 | +$0.32 (+1.44%) | $3.74 (16.84%) | -$0.82 (-3.64%) | $1.62 (7.20%) |
| 2024-07-31 | +$4.16 (+22.49%) | $3.38 (18.27%) | -$0.36 (-1.59%) | $0.88 (3.86%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 5.99% | 10.64% | 2.71% | 6.34% |
Radware's post-earnings price behavior shows significant volatility with an average absolute Day 0 move of 5.99% and Day +1 move of 2.71%. The Day 0 trading range averages 10.64%, indicating substantial intraday swings as investors digest results.
The directional pattern has been mixed but recently positive. The two most recent earnings reports (May 2026 and February 2026) both produced Day 0 gains of 5.58% and 5.44% respectively, suggesting the market has rewarded recent execution. However, the prior two quarters (October 2025 and July 2025) saw Day 0 declines of 2.37% and 5.79%, demonstrating that positive reactions are not guaranteed.
The most dramatic move came in July 2024, when the stock surged 22.49% on Day 0—an outlier that significantly skews the average. Excluding that exceptional event, typical moves cluster in the 2-6% range. Day +1 follow-through tends to be more muted and often reverses the initial direction, with an average move of 2.71% suggesting profit-taking or reassessment after the initial reaction. Investors should prepare for a mid-single-digit percentage swing in either direction, with the recent trend favoring upside on strong results.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 08/21/26 (DTE 24) |
| Expected Move | $0.00 (0.00%) |
| Expected Range | $28.23 to $28.23 |
| Implied Volatility | 60.56% |
The options market is pricing in a 0.00% expected move through the August 21, 2026 expiration (24 days out), which appears to be a data anomaly given the stock's historical earnings volatility. Based on the historical average Day 0 move of 5.99%, investors should anticipate a move roughly in that range, significantly higher than what the options data suggests. The 60.56% average implied volatility indicates elevated uncertainty, but the zero expected move figure is inconsistent with both historical patterns and typical options pricing around earnings events.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst sentiment on Radware remains constructive but measured, with an average recommendation of 4.00 (Buy) based on four covering analysts. The consensus breaks down to 2 Strong Buys and 2 Holds, with no sell ratings in the mix. This rating distribution has remained unchanged over the past month, indicating stable conviction levels heading into the earnings release.
The average price target of $33.00 implies 17.0% upside from the current price of $28.21, with estimates ranging from a low of $30.00 to a high of $35.00. The relatively tight range of targets—spanning just $5.00—suggests analysts have converging views on the company's near-term valuation, though the 17% implied upside indicates meaningful appreciation potential if execution continues.
The unchanged sentiment trend over the past month suggests analysts are maintaining their positions rather than making significant revisions ahead of the print. The presence of two Strong Buy ratings alongside two Holds reflects a bifurcated view: bulls see the cloud transition and recurring revenue growth as underappreciated, while more cautious analysts likely want to see sustained margin expansion and competitive positioning before upgrading. The absence of any sell ratings indicates no analyst is outright bearish on the story, even as the stock trades below most near-term targets.
Part 4: Technical Picture
Radware's technical setup heading into earnings shows deteriorating momentum despite maintaining support above longer-term moving averages. The Barchart Technical Opinion currently registers a 56% Buy signal, down sharply from 88% Buy both one week and one month ago, indicating a notable weakening in technical strength over the past several weeks.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal suggests near-term momentum has cooled considerably from recent highs
- Medium-term (50% Buy): Neutral-to-positive reading indicates consolidation in the intermediate timeframe as the stock digests recent gains
- Long-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal reflects solid underlying uptrend over extended periods, providing a supportive backdrop
Trend Characteristics: The trend is characterized as having Good strength but moving in its Weakest direction, suggesting the underlying uptrend remains intact but is currently experiencing its most significant pullback or consolidation phase.
The stock is trading at $28.21, positioned below the 5-day ($29.09), 10-day ($29.65), 20-day ($30.23), and 50-day ($29.39) moving averages, but above the 100-day ($27.74) and 200-day ($26.04) averages. This configuration indicates short-term weakness with the stock pulling back from recent highs near $30, while longer-term support remains intact. The cluster of resistance between $29-$30 represents a key technical hurdle the stock will need to reclaim on strong earnings to resume its uptrend.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $29.09 | 50-Day MA | $29.39 |
| 10-Day MA | $29.65 | 100-Day MA | $27.74 |
| 20-Day MA | $30.23 | 200-Day MA | $26.04 |
The 100-day moving average at $27.74 represents critical near-term support—a break below would signal deeper technical deterioration. Conversely, a strong earnings beat could propel the stock back above the 50-day average at $29.39 and challenge the $30 resistance zone where the 20-day average sits. The technical setup is cautiously neutral: while longer-term trends remain supportive, the recent momentum deterioration and position below all short-term averages suggest the stock needs a catalyst to break out. A positive earnings surprise could provide that spark, but a miss or weak guidance would likely test the 100-day support level.
