Markets don’t usually shout at major turning points — but they do sound warning signals.
In a recent video clip from Market on Close, Senior Market Strategist John Rowland, CMT, highlights something few investors can ignore: the U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) has slipped below an up-sloping trendline that has held for more than 14 years.
That doesn’t guarantee a dollar collapse, but it does spark an important conversation.
Why This Dollar Level Matters
Since 2011, the dollar has respected a long-term structural trend that guided capital flows, foreign investment, and global risk pricing.
John points out that:
- The recent break is not dramatic, but it is meaningful
- Markets often retest broken support before deciding direction
- Once long-term trends fail, volatility and regime shifts follow
This places the dollar in what John calls a “danger zone” — which is not a forecast, but a warning.
The Unintended Consequences of a Weaker Dollar
A weaker dollar is often framed as “good for exports.” But John emphasizes the trade-off:
- Foreign investors holding U.S. assets face currency risk.
- If that risk rises, they demand higher yields — especially on Treasurys.
That creates a paradox:
- A weaker dollar can push domestic interest rates higher
- Higher rates can pressure equity valuations
- Gold and hard assets benefit from both dynamics
This is where the “Sell America” narrative begins to form — not as ideology, but as capital behavior.
Why Gold Keeps Entering the Conversation
The dollar discussion cannot be separated from gold (GCG26).
Global central banks have quietly:
- Increased gold allocations
- Reduced reliance on U.S. Treasuries
- Treated gold as a reserve hedge rather than speculation
John connects this behavior to the broader theme: capital protecting itself from long-term currency uncertainty.
This doesn’t mean “betting against America.” As John notes, even investing legend Warren Buffett warns against that.
It means understanding how money moves when risk perception changes.
The Takeaway
This isn’t a call to panic. It’s a call to pay attention.
When a 14-year trend is tested, markets are signaling a possible shift in regime — not tomorrow, but over time.
Watch this 7-minute Market on Close segment to see John’s chart breakdown:
- Watch the full episode right here
- Sign up for notifications to be alerted ahead of the next livestream
On the date of publication, Barchart Insights did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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