Kalshi has reported 3,750 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 10, 2025 meeting?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 14% chance for "Above 4.25%", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 14% probability.
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 10, 2025 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 41,518 transactions since it was first opened on August 21, 2024. There are 26,686 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 44,204,278 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 100882)
- Will a representative of the Democratic party win the NYC Mayor race in 2025? (24h volume: 62843)
- Powell leaves before 2026? (24h volume: 32365)
- Who will IPO in 2025? (24h volume: 22801)
- Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in August 2025? (24h volume: 20484)
- Will the Republican party win the governorship in New Jersey (24h volume: 16790)
- Will the Fed cut rates 0 times? (24h volume: 13659)
- Will there be a recession in 2025? (24h volume: 12212)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.15? (24h volume: 11642)
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in August 2025? (24h volume: 10802)
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