OPEC+ to Boost Oil Output in September: Oil ETFs Under Pressure

OPEC+ announced on Aug 3, 2025 that it will increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September. This marked the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes aimed at regaining market share amid rising concerns over likely supply disruptions related to Russia.

In a post-meeting statement, OPEC+ held resilience of the global economy and relatively low oil inventories responsible for the decision to boost output. No wonder, United States Oil Fund LP USO lost 6.4% past week and United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO retreated 5.9% during that period.

Reversal of Major Output Cuts and UAE Increase

The move represented a complete and early reversal of OPEC+’s largest production cuts, along with an additional increase allocated specifically to the United Arab Emirates. The shift amounts to about 2.5 million bpd, which is about 2.4% of global oil demand.

Only eight OPEC+ countries participated in a brief virtual meeting to decide on the production increase. The meeting took place amid growing U.S. pressure on India to stop purchasing Russian oil — a push by Washington to encourage Moscow to enter peace negotiations over the war in Ukraine. U.S. President Donald Trump has set a goal of reaching a deal by August 8.

OPEC+ Strategy and Market Share Goals

The broader OPEC+ alliance, which includes 10 non-OPEC producers such as Russia and Kazakhstan, controls about half of the world’s oil supply. After several years of production cuts to support prices, the group reversed direction in 2025 to recapture market share. This shift was buoyed by repeated calls from President Trump (to some extent) for increased output.

Remaining Cuts and Future Challenges

In addition to the voluntary 1.65 million bpd cut by eight members, a broader 2-million-bpd cut remains in effect across all OPEC+ members. This larger cut is scheduled to expire at the end of 2026.

Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy, a former OPEC official, cautioned that the next phase —determining the future of the remaining 1.66 million bpd in cuts — could prove to be more challenging.

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