Cattle Futures Break Down in Front of Cattle on Feed

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The cattle markets took one to the chin on Friday, breaking down in front of the Cattle on Feed report. Traders look like they are more worried about a potential strike at the JBS Greeley plant in Colorado then a strong cash market that has not seen JBS back off from buying cattle for slaughter. They don’t seem to be worried about a strike as negotiations are ongoing but traders are constantly being bombarded by negative commentary about the potential strike being a foregone conclusion. With producers turning back packer bids and the packer raising bids during the day both the producer and packer don’t seem to be worried about a strike being imminent. But analysts continue to flaunt the strike as a foregone conclusion. With futures near all-time highs, traders are more worried about someone taking away the punchbowl before it is empty and are refusing to dip into the bowl. Feeders are especially surprising as the Feeder Index has made new all-time highs on consecutive days while futures falter and broke down on Friday. Futures are trading at a discount to the index while back in October when the previous all-time high was made the lead futures contract was trading above the index. Producers are paying up for cattle as supplies continue to tighten as evidenced by the (see below) Cattle on Feed report that was released after the close on Friday. According to many of my clients and other I speak with they are saying they are seeing replacement heifer prices rising as producers seem to be getting more aggressive on the breeding front. Could this mean tighter supplies coming as heifers leave the system? There is also talk that feeder cattle were brought forward by producers, putting them on the market to go into feedlots earlier than normal. Inventory being pulled forward could lead to tighter supplies down the road. We’ll see! The breakdown in April Cattle took price down from the session high at 243.675 to the low at 241.275, with settlement at 242.00. The breakdown took price down to test support at 242.075 and the rising 8-DMA at 241.225. If April Live Cattle can hold settlement, we could see price test resistance at the Thursday high at 244.125. Resistance then comes in at 245.125. A breakdown from the low could see price test support at the rising 13-DMA now at 240.375. The rising 21-DMA is next at 239.25 and then 238.125. Support then comes in at 235.625. March Feeder Cattle broke down from its high at 371.125 to the low at 366.575. It consolidated near the low  and settled at 368.025.  The break took price through support at 369.375 and tested rising short-term moving average support with the 8-DMA and 13-DMA at 367.875 and 367.80 respectively. If Feeder cattle can hold settlement, it could see price re-test resistance at 369.375. Resistance then comes in at 375.075. A breakdown from the low  could see price test support at the rising 21-DMA now at 365.825 and then the key level at 365.675. Support then comes in 363.00. 

The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 377.37 as of 02/19/2026.

Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 1.53 to 366.70 and select rose 0.95 to 360.74. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 5.96 and the load count was 106.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 89,000, which is above last week’s 86,000 and below last year’s 108,174. Saturday slaughter is expected to be zero, which is below last week’s 1,000 and last year’s 14,979. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 516,000, which is below last week’s 541,000 and last year’s 564,737.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states Thus far Friday negotiated cash trade in Nebraska was moderate on moderate to good demand. Compared to last week in Nebraska, dressed purchases traded mostly 6.00 higher at 388.00. Not enough live purchases for an adequate market test. The latest live market in Nebraska was established last week from 245.00-246.00, mostly 245.00. Trade was moderate to active on good demand in the Western Cornbelt. Compared to last week in the Western Cornbelt, live purchases traded 1.00-2.00 higher from 245.00-247.00. Dressed purchases traded 6.00-8.00 higher at 388.00 compared to last weeks light test. Trade in the Southern Palins was limited on moderate demand. The last established market in Texas was last week with live purchases from 246.00-248.00, mostly 248.00. The last established market in Kansas was last week with live purchases from 248.00- 249.00, mostly 248.00.

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 240.00 – 249.00 and from 380.00 – 388.50 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

 United States Cattle on Feed Down 2 Percent 

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.5 million head on February 1, 2026. The inventory was 2 percent below February 1, 2025. 

Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.74 million head, 5 percent below 2025. Net placements were 1.68 million head. During January, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 360,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 365,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 455,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 381,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 105,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 70,000 head. 

Marketings of fed cattle during January totaled 1.63 million head, 13 percent below 2025. 

Other disappearance totaled 55,000 head during January, 8 percent below 2025. 

Cattle on Feed and Annual Size Group Estimates 

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head represented 82.7 percent of all cattle and calves on feed in the United States on January 1, 2026. This is comparable to the 82.5 percent on January 1, 2025. 

Marketings of fed cattle for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head during 2025 represented 87.1 percent of total cattle marketed from all feedlots in the United States, down slightly from 87.2 percent during 2024.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

888.391.7894

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