Grains, Livestock, Energy, Metals actionable setups

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures finished mostly higher on Friday, with contracts gaining 25 cents to $1.37 at the close. August rose $2.65 for the week. USDA reported the national base hog price at $99.32 on Friday afternoon, down 94 cents from the previous day, while the CME Lean Hog Index increased 50 cents to $95.10 on July 15. The weekly CFTC CoTS report showed managed money adding 1,436 contracts to its near net short position in the week ending July 14, bringing the total net short to 30,438 contracts.

USDA’s pork carcass cutout value rose $1.99 in Friday afternoon’s report to $104.41, with ribs and hams the only primals moving lower. USDA estimated federally inspected hog slaughter for the week, including Saturday, at 2.31 million head—down 54,000 from the prior week and 23,497 below the same week last year.

August 2026 hogs closed at $101.650, up $1.375.

Agri [Wheat}

Wheat traded 2 to 5 cents higher early Monday after ending the prior week with gains across all three exchanges. Chicago SRW futures rose 4 ¾ to 9 ½ cents across most contracts Friday, with September up 42 ½ cents for the week as preliminary open interest increased by 2,320 contracts. KC HRW futures gained 10 ½ to 15 ¾ cents on the day, lifting September 56 cents for the week, while open interest rose 1,671 contracts. MPLS spring wheat kept pace with winter wheat, advancing 6 ½ to 11 ½ cents Friday as September climbed 39 ¼ cents. Ongoing buying tied to the escalating Black Sea conflict remains supportive, as attacks on ports and vessels have disrupted export flows.

Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report showed 2026/27 wheat sales at 2.057 MMT as of July 9, equal to 10% of USDA’s export projection and ahead of the five-year average pace of 9%. Weekly COTS data showed managed money cutting its CBT wheat futures and options net short by 25,527 contracts in the week ending July 14, reducing it to 36,798 contracts. Options activity monitoring is key to short-term positioning in both Chicago and KC wheat futures markets. In KC wheat, managed money added 5,730 contracts to its net long, bringing the position to 17,494 contracts. In Europe France’s AgriMer rated the French wheat crop 65% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week, with harvest 92% complete as of July 13. Argus estimated the French wheat crop at 30.8 MMT, which would be down 7.6% from last year if realized.

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